The goals are the salt and pepper of matches. And if salt and pepper give food its taste, then goals bring in the money for punters, right? Or at least that’s the objective…
This is as valid as the fact that any of those who bet on sports bets are looking for the win, beyond the adrenaline that comes with it. Some consider betting a “way of life”, a more or less constant income source, others dream of hitting the jackpot, getting rich over night, betting a ridiculous amount on a huge odd, made up of multiplying several events. Given the great number of combined matches, therefore the larger number of variables, the odds of such a ticket being a winning one are minimal.
Is there a formula for winning?
Even though many people will be disappointed, we can surely say that there is no such thing! There are only betting strategies and methods which maximize the chances of winning, one of them being establishing a decent final odd from two or more events – less is more (as to eliminate variables) – with a large stake.
Now we have to establish what a decent odd is and how to form it. Some would find it simple, others, who have experience in betting, may say that even an odd under 1.10 is unsure, however, when odds are established, agencies don’t want to lose too much.
Maybe one of the simplest multiplication, if not the simplest, is that of the 2 odd. Why 2? Simple – it’s the odd that is easily formed out of as less events as possible – 3 events at 1.25 – 1.30 odd or 4 at 1.20 odd.
How to translate these odds. Either there’s a certain favorite of a match (for example, Juventus in home games, without including the derbies, or, closer, Island wins in Andorra), or a double on a team that leaves on the first chance it gets in a somewhat more balanced game.
What do we do when we can’t find these, let’s say easy, matches?
The stakes on goals help us, a betting option in the offer of all agencies, online and offline. That is either because the match is balanced and this way we reduce the risk, or because there is a favorite such as Barcelona or PSG when they’re playing home with a squad team or that is in the second part of the top and it gets an odd under 1.10 when it wins and then, the number of goals combined with the success of the favorites raises the odd to about 1.20. In which case, as I was saying above, we have to find another two games to make the 2 odd and that’s how we double the invested amount. By betting on goals, we take a weaker moment of the overall team, or of its essential players, out of the equation and we compensate by means of the opposing team’s win.
Be careful, though, the strategy is not 100% sure! In analyzing a game, most people take into consideration the average number of goals of one of the teams or both of them, plus the last results and the direct results. But a small odd bet may still not be a winning bet. Example – Ajax Amsterdam, a team occupying second place in the Netherlands and which scored 88 goals in 26 games, that is an average of 3.4 goals per game. And still, if we take into consideration just this year, Ajax has lost two matches in the championships, both of them as a visiting team, with 1-0, matches during which many people had bet on their victory, and the less brave, on at least two goals.
There are several factors that we have to take into account when be place a bet on over 1.5 goals. These are:
- the number of goals scored during the championships
- previous results
- the results of direct matches
- the current shape in which the team is in
- unavailable players
- the team objective
- the weather
Championships to watch
According to statistics gathered on December 31st, 2018, there are 5 championships with the best chances of their games ending with several scored goals, so when you place a bet on goals, it would do you some good to get your inspiration from here. As numbers never lie, the top five championships with at least 3 (!) scored goals per game are:
- Switzerland Super League 69%
- The Netherlands – Eredivisie 65%
- Germany – Bundesliga 61%
- Belgium – First Division 59%
- The Netherlands – Eeste Divisie 57%
There is a simple method to increase the odds in case we find ourselves in need to combine more than 5 events in order to get a 2 odd. That is, betting on a goal during the first half, because this way we would combine two events. However, by respecting what we said above, the chances drop dramatically because statistically, more goals are scored during the second half than the first one.
Be careful! Even if these statistics may be helpful, they cannot be considered 100% sure!
And don’t forget – bet responsibly and remember the golden rule of betting: bet only as much as you can stand to lose!
by Paul Dan