Of course there are a lot of strategies and systems for placing sports bets. Even if they do not guarantee us winnings, they can help us a lot. And if we approach sports betting as a financial game, as an investment, we will see that a well developed and realistically implemented strategy helps us to make profits.
Consistency characterizes any betting strategy I apply. This is defined as the trait of an axiomatic system of not being contradictory, that is, being able to respect its principles. Basically, what does this mean for sports betting?
Let’s suppose we establish a game strategy that we will follow in both pre-match and live bets:
– any ticket containing 2 matches (no more, no less);
– the odds chosen and bet to be in the range @1.70 – @2.20 (variations may occur due to the bookmaker we play);
– the stake will always be fixed (such as Ron 1, Ron 10 or Ron 100, depending on the available budget);
– between 1 and 4 tickets/day/week and depending on the available sporting events.
Above is a ticket to the Champions League matches (11 March 2020) Liverpool – Atletico Madrid and Paris Saint Germain – Borusia Dortmund. The hosts won in both matches: 1-0 at Madrid and 2-1 at Dortmund. Under these conditions, PSG had the first chance at qualifying, even if the odds were over @2.00. The chosen bet type: who goes further, qualifies. As for Liverpool, many thought that Klopp’s team would easily prevail and the elections were between victory @1.55 – @1.60 and qualifying @1.80. The difference regarding the odds is quite small, given that Atletico Madrid is an foul play team. Basically, the Spaniards came to defend themselves and try to speculate moments of inattention.
Thus, we also considered the following ticket:
Liverpool – Atletico Madrid – to qualify 1 @2.10
Paris Saint Germain – Borussia Dortmund – to qualify 1 @2.19
The total stake is Ron 210 for a gain of Ron 965. At this moment we had a total stake of 210 + 247 = Ron 457 for a potential gain of Ron 965. The risks seemed higher in Paris, where the match was held with the gates closed. The coronavirus outbreak has prompted the French authorities to take this action. Even in England the situation has not been favorable, but Anfield played with spectators. The Klopp Manager even appealed to fans support to encourage and determine the team to win.
The scenario of the parties was as follows:
– In Paris, PSG made a strong debut, Neymar scoring in the 28th minute for 1-0. Also in the first half came the second goal, just before the break. Bernat scored the second goal after a pass from Sarabia in the 45th+1 minute. There was a second half full of difficulties, both teams receiving yellow cards. A red card was received by Can in the 89th minute and Borusia remained in 10 people. It ended 2-0 and it was a game for which I had no emotions. Even if we had the PSG winning or PSG qualifying, it was a bet that was quickly confirmed;
– In Liverpool, Klopp’s students have dominated extensively. But the goal came at the end of the first half, scored by Wijnaldum. Liverpool continued to press and statistics fully confirm this. 35 goals for Liverpool against only 10 for Atletico Madrid. 12 shots on goal for Liverpool against only 6 Atletico Madrid. It was clear that Simeone’s team was just defending and fragmenting the game. And it was successful, the end of the match registering 1-0 on the table. That has led to overtime, given that it had been 0-1 on Wanda Metropolitano. In the overtime, Firmino scored in the 97th minute and Liverpool were qualified, 2-1 overall. But Llorente equalized in the 97th minute and Atletico was qualified, 2-2 overall. Llorente also scored in the second half of overtime in the 105 + 1 minute and Morata set the final score in the 120 + 1 minute. Despite overwhelming opportunities and stifling dominance, Liverpool lost the game in front of their supporters.
What happened to betting in the second half:
– When Liverpool led by 1-0, the odds for Atletico Madrid to qualify were around @2.70. If we had only one ticket, a bet against would guarantee us the profit. After Liverpool scored in the overtime, the odds for Atletico Madrid to qualify were around @7.00 – @9.00. A bet against would have ensured us a very good profit. After the goal scored by Llorente, many bookmakers have eliminated the qualifying bet, leaving many other options. Due to the speed of the game and pressure, many odds were profitable.
What principles should we follow if we use this 2-bet system?
We stay away from generalities and what others would or might do and set realistic criteria. We can adapt them if changes or improvements are required:
1) Fixed stake guaranteeing at least 10 tickets. For example, if we have a budget of Ron 200, we will place tickets up to Ron 20.
2) The odds use in the established margin. If we choose a margin between @1.80 and @2.00, we use only these quotas. In the case of a 2-match ticket, at odds of @1.80, we have the total odds @3.24. This means that one bet out of three is the winner and it guarantees us a profit. We can have Ticket 1 @3.24 – lost, Ticket 2 @3.24 – lost, Ticket 3 @3.24 – Winning and +0.24.
3) Bets against or cash-outs when the situation differs from what we foresee. In many cases, the matches may have a different evolution from the one we anticipate. We can place live bets, cash out and, if we don’t win, we reduce losses.
4) We can bet online, at street agencies or both. In this way we have better control over the matches and we can place live bets.
5) The most used types of bets in this strategy are those under 2.5 goals. The big advantage is that we have a continuously decreasing odds if we do not register. Even after scoring the first goal, odds are good enough for live betting. At the same time, we can use at least one bet or PsF, but the odds are lower. We do not recommend multiple bets such as (1 & 3 +) unless unmissable opportunities arise.
by Mircea Panait