The scenario of a football game and the best bets (part III of 2019)

Friday, 7 June 2019

In the last 2 issues, we have seen the dynamic of the first half and the best bets that can be made during that part of the game. You can take another look at the articles and ideas on our site, casinoinside.ro, under the section sports betting. We now go to the second half of a football game and we discover what the best techniques are and if the choices on the second half are worth more.

 

We take into account the division by intervals, specific bets that you find at most betting operators. The bets on halves and on time intervals are the result of the evolution of live bets, which determined operators to offer as many options as possible.

 

The advantages of the second half

The primary advantage is obvious: you’ve had 45 minutes to observe how the game unfolds and now you can make a more precise estimation, based on the performance of both teams. This offers more information than the simple knowledge of start lines and you can see the detailed statistics from the first 45 minutes. You don’t necessarily have to see the game. Some punters consider this to be a huge advantage for a correct prediction with regards to the game’s result.

The second most used bet after that on the result, is that on the number of goals. If you’re thinking about making comparisons, then we’re talking about the goals scored during each half. It’s statistically confirmed that more goals are scored during the second half. For example, TG (total number of goals) II > TG I or GII > GI. You have to remember not to omit the fact that there can be several extension minutes added to the 45 regular minutes.

During the Premier League, the 2018-2019 season, almost all teams scored more in the second half. The only exceptions (at the time this article was written) were Burnley and Bournemouth, which had the same number of goals in both halves.

It’s implicit that punters are not the only ones following the game; betting houses monitor each game very closely. This is reflected in the rapid adjustment of odds, sometimes even in the moment the event is blocked. However, you have an advantage on your side. Half-time. The 15 minutes between the halves during which you’re not pressured by time.

From a technical point of view, less than half of the games offer valuable odds at under/over the number of goals at half-time. There is no value for you to make a bet on under 2.5 at half-time when the score is 0-0, as the odds have significantly decreased. Even at 1-0 or 0-1, the odds over/under 2.5 will be similar to those offered before the game.

Practically, you have to be offensive and to target the bets that change the course of the game.

It can either be the matter of a stake on the winning team, or on a superior number of goals. Certainly, there are exceptions to this rule, and one such exception is a bet on under 2.5 goals when one or two goals have been scored, however, these choices are motivated by other factors and do not represent the statistically confirmed trend.

The dynamics of the second half

Even though there are several divisions by interval, the most common is: 45-60, 60-75 and 75-final. Bellow you will find an example in the case of the Ligue 1 match between Etienne and Olympique Nimes. It’s clear to see that it is an open game in which goals are expected to be scored, especially by the host team. In this case, all that is left to do is to analyze the statistics of the two teams, the scoring trend and the interval during which they do it, and then follow the first half. The odds will suffer changes, however, you have an estimated indicate and you know the prognosis which is to be given by the betting house for this game after half-time.

*If we take into consideration a game with a 0-0 score at half-time and we’re betting live. The golden rule is that you have to have “more reasonable” odds compared to the pre-match odds. What does “more correct” mean? This is a subjective matter, as each punter establishes his/her own limits. There are, however, certain basic principles. For example, the odd for a host victory was of @1.50 before the beginning of the game, and should increase to about @2.20 at half-time (with the condition that the tie is maintained). A pre-game host victory offered at a @2.00 odd should reach about @2.60-@2.80 at half-time for it to be considered tempting.

 

The accepted limit is even greater when speaking about under. If 2.5 goals was offered at @1.70, (in the case of a tie with no goals) it should be at least @2.50 at half-time. There is a significant fluctuation with regards to the “GG” (both teams score) bet. It depends more on the general statistics of the match and the teams’ game, than the initial odds. If the “GG” odds before starting a match have been approximatively @1.80, a 0-0 tie at half-time should increase to over @3.00. In the case in which the low ranked team scores, the odds drop rather a lot and it’s better to wait before you bet.

The 45-60 minutes interval in the economy of a football game

A comparison which shows the championship in which teams score the most during the second half:

Norway, China, Bolivia, Moldova, Bahrain and the Netherlands are the championships in which teams score the most during the second half. It’s important that you know this when betting on a game in these leagues. Correlating the leagues’ performances with those of the teams, you can find the teams to constantly bet on during the second half.

If we refer exclusively to the Premier League, the following can be observed during the 45-65 minutes interval:

 

There are 5 minutes added to the existing 60, however, the 45-55 and 56-65 separation exists. Manchester City grabs first place, followed by Tottenham, Arsenal and Liverpool. These are the teams that score fast and consistently after half-time.

 

The conclusion? In general, teams score after half-time. The teams come rested and motivated from the lockers and try to decide the match. Some teams have specialized in surprising their adversaries, others press to achieve a tie. It’s worth betting on a goal scored during the first 10-15 minutes after half-time.

 

by Mircea Panait

 

Author: Editor

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