Scenario of a football match and best bets (part II)

Monday, 6 May 2019

In the previous issue of the magazine we looked into the dynamic of a football match and how this is divided into time slots. You may take another look at the ideas featured there on casinoinside.ro, under sports betting section.

 

We now stop at the first half of a football match, in particular the last part thereof. This has a number of special features and types of bets that are worthy of all your attention.

The first half does not influence the final score beyond repair. For this reason, the first half is attractive for betting, and the odds are closer to reality. Considering a first half split into the following time slots: 0-15’, 15-30’, and 30-45’, we approach the first half on segments.

Scenariul unui meci de fotbal

 

While we tackled the 0-15’ and 15-30’ time slots extensively in my previous piece, we will now stop at the 30-45’ slot, and some interesting bets for the first half.

 

30-45’ slot in the dynamics of a football match

 

In their paper Goal scoring patterns in major European soccer leagues (Giampietro Alberti, F. Marcello Iaia, Enrico Arcelli, Luca Cavaggioni &Ermanno Rampinini), having reviewed this 15-minute time slot, the authors noticed an ascending trend in the number of goals scored as the time progresses (13.7, 15.1, 16.2, 17.7, 17.2 and 20.2%, for 0-15’, 15-30’, 30-45’, 45-60’, respectively 60-75’ and respectively 75-90’). This survey covered four major European football leagues (the English Premier League, the French Football Ligue 1, the Italian Serie A, and the Spanish Football La Liga over 3 seasons: 2008–09, 2009–10 and 2010–11).  The number of goals scored is however higher n the second half, the highest rate being in the last 15 minutes of a game.

Another survey published in 2018 by towardsdatascience.com relying on Kaggle data sets (9,000 matches reviewed in the top European leagues in years 2012-2017) found as follows:

  • In average, the teams that score the first goal tend to win 69% of the matches, claim a draw in 19%, and lose in 11%.
  • The teams that score the first goal in the first half tend to win 66% of the matches, claim a draw in 20%, and lose in 14%.
  • The teams that score the first goal in the second first half tend to win 79% of the matches, claim a draw in 16%, and lose in 5%.

Scenariul unui meci de fotbal

Looking in the 30-45’ time slot in the Premiere League (season 2018/2019), we notice as follows:

  • But very few teams score often in this time slot. Only Manchester United, Manchester City, Bornemuth and Tottenham have at least 10 goals scored between 30-45’.
  • There are however teams that are scored against pretty easily in the end of the first half. Arsenal, Bornemouth, Everton, Huddersfield, Leicester City, and Southampton.
  • The total number of goals, scored&received, is higher than in the two previous slots.

It thus follows a steep trend of scoring in the 30-45’. Goals that may occur to level the score and go into the halftime with a draw, or goals that widen the gap on the scoreboard. Even if the number of goals scored in the 30-45’ time slot does not stand comparison with that seen in the 76-90’ slot, there are some similarities.

This should be linked the score on the board and how the game develops.

Scenariul unui meci de fotbal

Scenariul unui meci de fotbal

Scenarios and bets in the 30-45’ time slot

 

Two principles gain important in particular when one bets live:

  • In the 30-45’ slot, one goal is scored sufficiently often to make it significant.
  • Bookkeepers set the general limit of the goals scored in the first half at 1.5. The matches with more than 2 goals scored in the first half break the patterns.

Scenariul unui meci de fotbal

In championship such as the Premiere League, a goal scored in the first 30 minutes may be easily followed by a second one in the 30-45’ time slot. When the lower ranked team scores, the efforts to level the score and go into the halftime with a draw are but natural.

Looking at the chart above, the 41-45’ slot stands out. As it includes also the extra time, is longer by default. Burnley, Huddersfield and Wolves have not yet managed to score in this period. This means that these tend to preserve the results of the first 45 minutes. However, the general offense of each team should not be overlooked either.

Scenariul unui meci de fotbal

It remains a fact though that more goals are scored in the second half, but before mechanically placing this bet, one should carefully analyze and follow the match.

Considering all of the above, the following conclusions may be reached:

  • We may apply a targeted strategy going for teams that score more often in the first half. At average bets above 2.50, of essence is the propensity of a team to score in this time slot. Bets are sufficiently high, but rather volatile. This is offset also by the extra time ordered by the referee (1-3 minutes in general).
  • The soundest game strategy for the first half relies on a comparisons of two teams’ statistics. We compare the lines and tactics of the teams. Offensive teams are to be preferred, but less in games with a lot at stake. Live odds are more attractive than pre-match ones (in this case), due to the dynamics of each match. A goal scored in the first 30 minutes may cause another one after minute 30. This would mean more than 1.5 goals in the first half. We choose 3-5 teams that score more than in the first half, and bet repeatedly on these teams even in combos of 2-3 matches.

Scenariul unui meci de fotbal

by Mircea Panait

Author: Editor

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