The era of aggregate statistic indicators: TSR, SoTR and PDO

Wednesday, 3 July 2019

 It is clear that sports are studied more and more and new factors are taken into account. What was previously ignored, is now analyzed and new correlations are made. More and more indicators, trends, parameters and statistical data. Sometimes, you think about whether it’s worth paying so much attention to and analyzing every single one. This is debatable, however, the efforts/results ratio is essential. Especially in the case of sports betting, where financial resources are so important.

It is important for every punter to be able to use statistical data and information. The interpretation capacity and the conclusions differ depending on our personalities. As xG (expected goals) have gained popularity, certain qualitative indicators have been imposed. TSR, SoTR are PDO are the most known among them.

What are TSR, SoTR and PDO

TSR, Total Shots Ratio, is a part of the total number of scored shots. This is defined as:

TSR = the total number of shots of a team / the total number of shots of the team and of the adversary

SoTR = the total shots in the gate of a team / the total number of shots in the gate of a team and of the adversary

PDO is an indicator taken from hockey which was applied to football. It is used to assess how lucky / unlucky a team was during the season. PDO is defined as:

PDO = 1000x (Misses% + Scored goals%).

Therefore, you can’t estimate just the quality of the game, but how lucky or unlucky a team can be, as well. Of course, it is debatable how much the wind influenced the ball’s direction to the bar and it is easier to place the blame on the lack of chance, however, the quantification of each game is a reality. For a punter, it represents an indicator he/she can take into account or not.

TSR (Total Shots Ratio)

For example, Arsenal, from London, had 562 shots scored and 496 shots toward its own gate. That means: 562: (562+496), that is TSR of 0.531. TSR is an indicator that somewhat measures a team’s ability to shoot while heading off the adversaries’ shots towards its own gate.

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Arsenal TSR

The TSR analysis for Arsenal during the last 38 games of the Premier League

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However, this indicator has more limitations and the punters have appreciated that it is not sufficient for predictions. Even if it offers a perspective upon the game, it can ignore the game in the middle of the field.

SoTR (Shots on Target Rate)

Very many betting houses offer odds for the number of shots per gate during a match. The total number of shots, the number of shots scored by each team, even the number of shots per half. Even if it is a very debatable bet and even if it has certain issues with regards to validation, the players try it and use it frequently.

SOTR

SoTR for the most important European teams 2018-2019

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It is considered to be a more relevant indicator than the total shots ratio, especially due to the fact that it indicates the offensive accuracy and efficiency of a team.

PDO

PDO measures how efficiently a team can convert shots and impede the adversary from doing it.

PDO is the amount of a percentage between the teams’ efficiency (goals / shots on the gate) and the percentage of saves (saved shots/adversary shots per gate). It treats each shot as having equal chances of becoming a goal – regardless of the location, the one making the shot or the identity or position of the keeper, idea which was issued by James Grayson. A simple and complex concept at the same time, which takes into account the chance factor and tries to quantify it.

Let’s presume that Liverpool saves 60% of the shots taken for their gate and scores 33% of the taken shots, their PDO shall be 93. This means that the number of scored/received shots in relation to the shots has nothing to do with abilities. It’s all about chance, as it comes back down to the same value in the long run, if you play well or not. Rather confusing and not to satisfying for punters who use it. It, however, helps identify certain teams which play more consistently than other which invoke luck.

No matter how you use these indicators, it all comes down to the manner in which you interpret the information and how you transform it into the bets made. As with other sports, football is a combination between luck, skill and entertainment, so, the most important aspect is to have fun betting and to spend time in a pleasant manner.

Cited sources: wikipedia, jameswgrayson.wordpress.com and pinnacle.com

by Mircea Panait

Author: Editor

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