What can I bet on in La Liga to make a profit, to win at betting? Is this championship worth my attention or would I be better off just relaxing watching the games? These are some of the questions I ask myself after years of being one of the leagues under sustained study. The League has some undeniable peculiarities, which I must take into account.
Is the Messi era really over?
The Argentinian star has strongly influenced the qualitative development of Spanish football. The period also manifested itself proportionately in sports betting. Just as Benzema has made his mark prolifically on the goals scored by Real Madrid. Of course, there are many examples, there is no point in going to CR7, Ronaldinho or Zidane.
Real had the most prolific attack in the 2022-2023 season. With 75 goals scored, 1.97 on average per game. In second place was Atletico with 70 goals and an average of 1.84 goals/game. Barcelona had the strongest defence with an average of 0.53 goals conceded/game and 26 games without being scored against. Then came Atletico, with 0.87 goals conceded/match and 13 clean sheets. Conclusion: Barca took the title, Real Madrid came 2nd and Atletico Madrid 3rd.
Defense won the title, offense took second place, pragmatic play climbed the podium.
A championship in which 50% of the matches were GG, the hosts won 48% of the games. Lewandowski (23 goals) was top scorer and Benzema (19 goals) was second top scorer.
3 types of bets to watch in La Liga 2023 – 2024
- 1&3+ or 2&3+ on Real Madrid. Because Real are an offensive team, they have to show off, to produce, to sell, to satisfy their huge mass of supporters. I expect Jude Bellingham to score at least 15 goals this season and the team to better dose their effort to win the title. It’s time for Rodrygo, Camavinga, Tchouameni, Bellingham, Vinicius Jr. to totally explode. And let Modric or Kroos contribute with refinement and experience.
- Villareal win at home. Last season, the Yellow Submarine finished in 5th place in the UEFA League. At home, it was 4th with 12 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses. It scored 36 goals and conceded 18. In these games it had 56.3% possession, third after Barcelona and Real Madrid.
- Under 3.5 goals at Real Sociedad. A very solid team that caught the last Champions League spot (deservedly so, in my opinion). It is going to be involved in more matches and I have noticed that it is very good at keeping any advantage that it gets. One of the teams that is making the most of its potential. Excellent on the counter-attack, it easily creates goal-scoring opportunities. The core of players like Takefusa Kobo, Aihen Munoz, Robin Le Normand, Brais Mendes, Mikel Oyarzabal is already performing very consistently.
I’m referring strictly to these bets, even if I place tickets, they do not exceed 2% of the betting budget. I optimize for the three types of bets and the selected teams on La Liga to win in the 2023 – 2024 season.
Hidden secrets in statisticians’ predictions
Opta algorithms show that: On the one hand, Real have a 47.7% chance of taking the title, Barcelona 25.9% and Atletico 19.3%. On the other hand, Alaves, Las Palmas and Granada are most likely to be relegated. All 3 with over 39%. Almeria, Rayo Vallecano and Cadiz are not far from my ‘target’.
There are 6 teams above that are worth consistently betting against.
Statistical series matter enormously but need to be interpreted carefully. For example, I know that:
Real Madrid have won their last 7 matches with Almeria in all competitions. In all these games there were over 2.5 goals. Enough for me to believe, for example, that Real get the win & over 2.5 goals. With some caution, because no series can go on forever.
La Palmas has not won a match in its last 17 La Liga games. Of course, they won’t lose every game, but the statistical trend shows that they concede goals, are overmatched in many areas and have many deficiencies in their game. I just have to pick the bet that’s most advantageous for me.
Conclusions to remember
The League 2023-2024: 3 strong teams that will fight for supremacy. One slip-up can leave a podium position or even a Champions League spot open. I bet on Real Madrid, Villareal and Real Sociedad.
I don’t forget to follow the schedule of games, La Liga being one of the leagues with many games starting at 10pm (our time) and also the evolution of teams in European competitions.