Betting on the correct score, between high odds and risks taken

Tuesday, 9 January 2024

Betting on the correct score is a separate chapter for most punters. No matter how much experience and expertise is behind me, correct score betting is still something between statistics and guesswork.

When it comes to odds, the correct score markets have among the highest values. However, it takes a clear strategy, a precise way of allocating stakes when betting and a lot of inspiration to make a consistent profit.

One can apply most of the known betting strategies on the correct score, one can (easily) make trading, one can make dutching but predicting the final score remains difficult and affected by many unknowns. Because it is the final result that is the most important, not the correct score recorded at the end of the game.

However, whatever the correct score (at the end of the game), always, one of the teams will be happy with the result.

A bet on the correct score is about choosing the final result. For the bet to win, this score must be recorded at the end of the match. One good choice leads to a significant profit, more choices increase the chances of winning but decrease the value.

Betting on the correct score

Correct score 2-1, Lazio – Celtic UCL 2023-2024 group match

Correct score bets, choices between variants

The most popular variant is the correct score at the end bet. At the same time, one can also bet the correct score in the first half (at half-time) as well as the correct score in the second half.

Correct score half-time/final is the variant that combines 2 bets for much higher odds. There are plenty of matches with a 0-0 (half-time)/1-0 or 2-0 (final) scenario. It can also be taken into account in a multi-choice system. Personally, I prefer to pick 5-6 games where I bet 1-0 halftime/2-1 final, but you can pick any combination that works to your advantage.

Of course, various combinations can also be found, such as:

  • Scorer + correct score
  • First scorer + correct score
  • Scores anytime + correct score and so on

 

While these bets may seem tempting, they are far too risky and seem more suitable for very low stakes when watching the match with friends than considering for serious betting.

However,…

Betting on the correct score is considered the bet that presumes the greatest accuracy from a player.

At the same time, there are plenty of arguments and analyses that show that the correct score is under enormous pressure from the prospect of arrangements, fixed games, games with a previously known outcome. This often includes the correct score at the end of the game.

Strategy is the key, moneymanagement is the secret

Basically, you can pick any correct score in a game and bet on it. Purely random choices will often end badly. So will fanciful attempts like 7-2 or 8-1, even if you say 5-2 is a (sometimes) common score.

The most common strategies for betting on the right score, without the pretence that there can’t be more valuable ones:

Statistics-based betting. In this case it’s all about statistical analysis and the predisposition of certain teams for a certain correct score.

Strategies taking into account 0-0, the score at which the bookmaker returns the stake. There are championships in which some bookmakers return stakes for certain bets provided the game ends 0-0. An advantage if you “hunt” these games and correctly estimate the scoreless games.

Bets made as late in the match as possible. Betting on a 1-0 final score and 2 goals being scored in the first half is not nice. Neither is picking a score and having the bet go wrong long before the end. Of course, you can always consider the correct score as an alternative. Many experienced punters prefer to wait for a game to start before placing their bet.

Dutching. A technique developed by Dutch “Dutchy” Schultz, Al Capone’s accountant, who used to bet against several horses at horse races to make a profit.

On the correct score, you can pick more than one correct score or bet against those scores that you don’t give a real chance of appearing.

Example:

You bet 10 lei on 2-1 correct score at odds @ 6.00 (60 lei win)

You bet 10 lei on 2-0 correct score at odds @ 5.00 (50 lei win)

You bet 10 lei on 1-0 correct score at odds @ 4.00 (40 lei win

You bet = 30 lei total

Depending on the result, the profit is:

2-1 = 30 lei (60 lei win – 20 lei bet on 2-0 and 1-0 = 40 lei)

2-0 = 20 lei (50 lei win – 20 lei bet on 2-1 and 1-0 = 30 lei)

1-0 = 10 lei (40 lei win – 20 lei bet on 2-1 and 2-0 = 20 lei)

 

Betting on 1-0 and/or 2-0, the most common scores at the end

A suggestive table showing the occurrence of correct scores in the Premier League (until 28.11.2023 in the 2023-2024 season) by team. The analysis and one’s choices depend on inspiration and experience. However, the importance of following a strategy, consistency and analysis of each bet makes the difference.

(Against 0-0) Betting against the correct score 0-0

In this case, it is preferable to pick teams coming after 0-0 matches. Pretty hard for a team (with pretensions and offensive appetite) to catch two scoreless draws, that’s the basic idea of the strategy.

Multiple correct score bets

Multiple correct score bets on PSG – Newcastle in the UCL2023-2024 group stage

Is it really worth betting on the correct score?

As there are plenty of cons mentioned above, we should also consider the pros. And here it may be a different way of betting, increased accuracy and the application of game discipline. Respect for strategy, chosen principles, care for the stake value and continuous adaptation.

Because the odds are high, the satisfaction of a correct result is worth it. Even if it is not ticket-ready, playing on the correct score can be adapted. And bookmakers seek to offer the most attractive options for players, bets with 2-3 even 4 correct scores.

In my opinion, the correct score is a refined bet and involves several choices. A smaller win is preferable to a small loss. No one can continually dream of a potential huge win coming at some unknown time.

And as a clear conclusion, the answer is yes. Yes, it really pays to bet on the correct score. For the adrenaline rush, for the fun, but also for the satisfaction of increased winnings.

 





Author: Editor

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