How do we choose our Victory & over 2.5 goals

Thursday, 2 July 2020

Victory & over 2.5 goals is a type of multiple bet that is increasingly sought and popular among punters. In fact, multiple bets have gained more and more ground, and there is a number of benefits that you need to consider when you make your picks. Of course, there are also risks to be considered, and we all know that these are inherent to any betting on sports.

Victory & over 2.5 goals is a bet that can consist of:

1 & over 2.5 goals – meaning that the home team wins and at least 3 goals are scored in the match

2 & over 2.5 goals – meaning that the away team wins and scores at least 3 goals in the match

If we consider also X & over 2.5 goals, we will end up with scores like 2-2, 3-3, 4-4, or other rather unusual scores. 2-2 and 3-3 have been occasionally seen, but overall, not at all often. Additionally, these can be covered live at one or two-goal margin.

Victory & over 2.5 goals and Victory & GG

These two bets have many similarities, but also one big difference. GG (both teams score) is more difficult and requires both teams to score. Even there are plenty of instances when the lower rated team does score, we can have 3-0 or 0-3 matches that make the difference.

Let’s take the Bundesliga classic Borussia Dortmund – Bayern Munich, and see which are the margins for each type of bet.

Even when they play away, Bayern is the favorite @1.86. But, despite this, Dortmund has displayed an outstanding gameplay during the last two matches, and the odd can be subject to changes. Looking into the performance of the two teams, we end up concluding that 1X is a valuable bet. But we need to consider also the goals, as the two team find it rather easily to score. The team value and the history of their recent clashes point to GG as a bet that is worth considering. Following up the odds, we see that GG3+ has a rather low value.

Before this game, Jadon Sancho was the top scorer of Dortmund with 14 goals. Robert Lewandowski has already scored 27 times. Dortmund made it six wins on the bounce playing home, and Bayern Munich raised the bar to 8 wins.

 

Thus, we can think about bets on victory and over 2.5 that can secure us a reasonable profit, if they happen.

Dortmund – Bayern Munich 1 & over 2.5 goals @4.60

Dortmund – Bayern Munich 2 & over 2.5 goals @2.30

In this case, if we bet on both, we, overall, make a profit. RON 100 @4.60 => RON 460, and RON 100 @2.30 => RON 230. We lower the stake, and we can have a profit of either RON 260 or RON 30. But this, only provided that one team wins, and the high number of goals confirms.

What odds should we consider for Victory & over 2.5 goals

Being a multiple bet, odds above @2.50 are reasonable and you can go for it. We secure one winnable bet of three.

The big advantage in case of victory & over 2.5 goals comes from the fact that these are the most popular types of combined bets. When we review a game, we consider a number of factors and study many variables. O correlation between the time spent analyzing and the stake bet will show us that this type of multiple bet is fully justified.

Statistics show us that, during the last direct matches, victory & over 2.5 goals occurred more often than victory & GG. During the last 6 clashes between Bayern and Borussia, only one match ended with less than 3 goals scored. In 5 of the last 6 matches we saw either team winning, and over 2.5 goals scored. In only 2 of the last 6 matches, one of the team won and both teams scored. This explains how important are the 3 points at stake, and that goals come second. At the same time, when one of the teams take off, the other one seems to accept the outcome, and does not push anymore.

How do we choose our Victory & over 2.5 goals

Our ability to choose is very important in this case, and study and analysis matter a great deal. Being simple bets (even of a multiple type), we usually stick to the same fixed stake. This will help us better manage the bet bank, even with no colossal gains.

The hunger for goals of a team is the first thing we need to consider. Generally, the teams that score more goals are known in each league. But, for a bet on over 2.5 goals, we need to give due account also to the capabilities of the two teams meeting on the pitch.

For classics or local derbies, there is a certain tendency to score. Each team is eager to win before their fans, and the pressure exerted from the stands matters a great deal.

If we look at the two first two days of Bundesliga, since the championship resumed, we find the following:

– 9 of the 18 matches played ended with victory & over 2.5 goals. This means that half of all games fell into odds of over @2.50 in general.

– 5 of the 9 victory & over 2.5 goals matches were won by the away teams. This means that the empty stands acted against the home team.

– the tendency of stronger teams to prevail was doubled by the more than 2 goals they scored in each match played.

 By Mircea Panait

Author: Editor

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