by Valentin Macovei
We present to you two bizarre strategies which could allow you to win good money from sports betting without investing too much time in analyzing matches…
Not too long ago, I came across the material of an anonymous punter, who, even though seemed as a true conman at first glance, presented an outstandingly simple strategy, but also interesting, which made me think. The method goes like this: “Pick 3 odds of football soloists between 1.40 and 1.60 and bet on them in one ticket.” The punter in question said that we don’t even have to analyze the respective prognoses.
The minimum odd of a ticket made according to the anonymous punter’s strategy is of 2.74 (1.4 x 1.4 x 1.4), and the maximum odd is of 4.09 (1.6 x 1.6 x 1.6). We, however, because we wish to draw a simple and fast conclusion, shall use the average odd as reference, and that is 3.37 (1.5 x 1.5 x 1.5). That means that we need 1 winning ticket out of the 3 played to make a profit, grosso modo, in the case in which we use a fixed stake for each ticket.
As the anonymous punter did not suggest any money management method, we can also take into account a progressive stake management strategy, such as that of the fixed profit. Its feasibility depends, however, on the variation which could affect us by playing this way. We have to calculate this, either by performing simulations on already established events, or by experimenting such an approach for a long period of time. The question we must answer before trying a progressive stake system is: “How many such losing tickets can we catch in a row?”
However, regardless of the chosen money management, it is easy to realize that this novel method has a major advantage compared to the others: Compared to most sports bets strategies, in order to practice the “magic odd” strategy, you don’t have to watch matches or the news or follow statistics to bet, so you won’t be wasting too much time to establish prognoses for each stage, however, it would be good to inspect the specific of the leagues on which you are going to bet before starting.
Starting from the anonymous punter’s strategy, I thought of performing a series of strategies using prognoses which fall under the “magic odd” interval, but I didn’t use the tickets in the battery, but individual bets instead. Here are the results:
League 1, fotbal
- In League 1 regular season 2017/2018 (without play-out and play-off), 182 matches were disputed.
- Of these, there were 28 soloists whose average odd was between 1.40 and 1.60.
- 20 selections were winning selections, having an average odd of 1.51, and 8 were losing selections.
- The results of the simple simulation, based on the exact average quotas of each match (according to an odds comparison platform which considers the coefficients from the offers of tens of on-line sports betting operators), indicate a 8.3% return on investment in the case in which we would have bet on a fixed amount on each of the 28 selections.
- In the first 30 stages of the Premier League’s 2017/2018 season, 300 matches were disputed.
- No less than 34 favorites have had a victory odd between 1.40 and 1.60.
- 24 selections were winning selections, having an average odd of 1.50, while 10 were losing selections.
- Performing the same simulation as in the case above, we discovered that we would have obtained a 5.6% return on investment if we would have bet individually – using the same stake – on all 34 selections.
What we discovered in the analyzed cases
The balance after the first 10 stages of the analyzed championship was not a positive one, so, in order to render the profit efficient, it would be best to avoid the first 10 rounds, period in which the teams barely have time to get into the rhythm of the game; afterwards, the odds become somewhat more predictable.
In the regular Jupiler League 2017/2018 season, such an approach would have lead to a ROI of -10%, which indicated that this unwritten rule of the “magic odd” does not apply in all cases and that we should nonetheless do our homework before investing money in a strategy based on tips with odds between 1.40 and 1.60.
What is interesting is the fact that we redid the simulation for the Belgian championship excluding the first 10 stages, and the situation changed completely: in the last 160 matches in the Jupiler League current regular season, we calculated a 1.9% return on investment.
Don’t forget that, for this experiment, we used the average odds of the prognoses and not the best odds available at that time on the market. The average odds are useful to indicate the prognoses which fall under the “magic odd” interval, however, in order to play the predictions, it would be indicated that we choose the most valuable odds each time offered by on-line betting operators and other punters, on the Betting Exchange platforms. Speculating the best coefficients, we can as such have a greater return on investment.
Conclusions and advice
There would be a lot of things to discuss and to analyze, but here are several interesting things that we were able to discover in only a few hours. With regards to the gaming strategy the anonymous punter proposed, I can’t express myself regarding the 3 sections on the ticket, you will have to experiment with that on your own, as the prognoses combination introduces luck, hunch and so on into the equation.
Now, referring to the simplified strategy, proposed by me, in which the selections are played individually, things seem to be somewhat clearer. As an advice, I would recommend that you analyze the results from several seasons of several leagues and to choose those which seem to respect the model of the last two-three seasons. Concurrently, it is crucial to have accounts with top on-line batting operators and on the Betting Exchange platform licensed in our country, as to bet each time where you find the largest odd.
We have to admit: The strategy seems promising. What is certain is that the time investment is minimum, the “gross” being performed at the beginning, following that later on the template initially established be used. We are no longer interested in unavailable players, how the weather is, what the momentary form says and so on.
Do not expect to get rich overnight, as there is no fixed formula to guarantee profit in sports betting. Do not invest in gambling more than you can afford to lose. Please bet responsibly!