If I had received EUR 1 for each 1 halftime/2 final or 2 halftime/1 final tip that was recommended on the social networks as a sure win and played among hundreds or thousands of naive punters, I would have surely be thinking about taking over the Dinamo Bucharest football team today.
Although for certain punters the sure match fever on Facebook seems something that has already run its course and no longer deserving attention, currently, there more and more scammers who are trying their luck promising the world and providing 100% sure tips. The whole deal started to become so funny, that some scammers even claim that they have two such tips in one day. As you can imagine, the betting mafia is at their feet…
Well, if two years ago over 90% of fixed matches tips on the social network included tips on the Croatia, Bosnia, Albania and several other countries’ matches, of which it is well know that they are battling severe corruption in football – not that our country is in a different situation – currently, charlatans have started to diversify their offers, so much so that we find fixed tips even from matches in the eliminatory phase of the Champions League.
Even if they wear a different hat (devil in a Sunday hat), most scammers seem to not be able to part with the famous halftime/final tips, which are causing a stir among gullible individuals who hope to get rich over night.
Why do scammers prefer halftime/final bets?
It is hard to tell if, at the present time, the scammers prefer these types of bets or if there is simply a very large demand of such bets on the market. Here’s how this happened: many years ago, when betting houses were not really able to protect themselves against fixed matches and there were no anti-fraud in football departments and organizations, or in the gambling industry, the clever boys used the large stakes of these types of bets as to get as much as possible out of a fixed match.
As the odds for one of the 1/2 or 2/1 bets is usually higher then 20 on at least one of the signs, it was clear that these were to be targeted by “sure-thing” scammers. Practically, this type of bet replaced the classic prognosis “7 or more goals” used by the scammers, as a 1 halftime/2 final bet can be fixed with only 3 goals in a match, which would draw less attention – or at least that’s how it was back then.
Of course, slowly but surely, those paying attention started to understand the mechanism and the betting houses started to take action to protect themselves, limiting amounts that could be played on such bets and even suspending the game. However, what has endures is people’s perception with regards to this type of bet, perception which continues to live on today. What will the first reaction of a football fan be when seeing that a match closes with a 1 halftime/2 final result or vice-versa? Obviously, he would say: “Oh, this game was fixed. Look, a 27 odds, nice, right?”
Besides this, the odds for such a bet can be relatively easily manipulated and even a slight fluctuation seems to be much grander than it really is. What really happens: the scammer launches on a certain page or on several pages, sites, forum and so on, an information according to which a certain match will end with a 2 halftime/1 final result. Then, people start betting and the 27 odd drops only by 15%, becoming 22.95. Then, the punter tries to sell this tip, and the fooled clients will have a tendency to believe that the “sure-thing” is actually a sure thing, as they will see the apparent massive drop in odds. Of course, in certain cases, the odds may drop to 15 or even lower, as news travels fast and naive punters will throw at least a few euros on such a prognosis. That is why scammers, sometimes, even have a continuity with clients, even if the tip was bad, as the drop in odds makes the whole thing more plausible.
What is even more interesting, however, with regards to the functioning mechanism of these scams is something very few punters actually think about: what is many of the authors of these tips are simply trading off on the rabble? As in, they simply buy this initial large odd of 27, then spread the news of the “sure-thing”, even publicly, as a free pick, so that afterwards, several hours apart, to sell the same prognosis on a 15 odd or lower. Now this is an almost certain bet!
How is a “sure-thing” done in football?
There is no point in us divulging too many details and technicalities about such practices as to not encourage anyone to try such a thing, however, I will tell you a few certain things about fixed games.
In this day and age, most often, matches are fixed either with the gatekeeper or with the referee. Fixing matches with the center quarterbacks alongside the gatekeeper are also pretty often. These can be organized from the outside, by means of the mob. There are also those internal, spontaneous fixes, which most of the time are discovered sooner or later (such as those in the Romanian inferior leagues), in which a part of the players decide to throw the match for the bets, however without selling/giving away the information to anyone. Fixed matched involving the entire team are extremely rare nowadays, not the mention those in which both teams, the referees and even a part of the coaches or leaders are involved.
Realistically, large odds bets lead to suspicion, initiate the betting operators’ filters and those of the organizations monitoring fraud in football, which is why they are no longer used. that is why, most “sure-things” shall be organized on results which are somewhat more banal and on relatively low odds, as those are the ones on which you can bet more and the risk of suspicion is not that high.
Under no circumstances will information about a fixed match circulate on the internet. People involved in such practices risk too much, from losing their freedom to losing their family or their life. If you ask how come certain tips turn out to be good ones, it’s simply a matter of getting it right or the evidence was in someway tampered with, be it either platforms such as Facebook, photos, screenshots or videos with winning tickets and a lot of money scattered on tables.
When is it indicated to play the 1 halftime/2 final or vice-versa bets?
Actually, we are speaking about odds over 20, which would mean that if you do happen upon only one such prognosis out of 19 played, you’d make profit. Do you think that if these were profitable, professionals wouldn’t be playing these bets, too? It is not indicated that you play like this, however, there are certain exceptions in which you can play the 1/2 and 2/1 bets in a justified manner.
For example, when following the season statistics and observing that one of the teams makes a habit of very often scoring during the first half, however it will have a clearly superior adversary which could turn the game, as this has been done before during the current season and it will leave the game the first chance it gets anyway, then you can think about playing such a prognosis.
Another good scenario for such a prediction would be when the more valuable team in the match is more tired than its adversary; at the World Cup, for example, if a representative had a game with extensions (120 minutes) during the eight-finals, and after that, in the quarter finals it comes face to face with a much more well rested team, the spotter might think about telling its players to force themselves during the first half, knowing that they will run out of stamina closer to the end of the game.
We could very well think about a match in the Europa League, where guests have the option of opening the score, but they do not, however have the option of managing the pressure of the adversary who will attack in waves, having a weak defensive.
A last piece of advice would be to avoid 1 halftime/2 final and 2 halftime/1 final bets, and if you do choose to play such prognoses, do not ever do it because you heard something from someone or because you saw the odds’ evolution, but because you found favorable indicators with regards to such a prognosis, as a result of your own analysis. Good luck!
by Valentin Macovei