There are some types of bets that gain ever more ground and get the attention of the players. On account of the quotas or the desire to improve the forecast process or for reasons having to do with the approach of each punter.
Many times we place complex bets without giving it too much thought, in order to use a higher quota or because this is how we envisage a sports event. When it comes to football, complex bets win ever more ground and their range is growing.
Think about a Break/Final bet on a match and let us assume you will indicate correctly the result at the break and at the end of the match. The quota is already comprised of two bets, one at the break, one at the end of the match, even if the betting operator gives you this as a distinct market.
Types of complex bets
Sequence of events (SE) is a complex bet in which you must indicate the winner of the match as well as the number of goals scored during a match. So both predictions must be met, the one at the end of a match as well as the one regarding the number of goals). Here are a few examples:
1&3+: meaning the host team wins the match and at least 3 goals are scored in that match (e.g. 2-1, 3-2, 4-0)
2 bets are made in this instance: 1 (host win) and over 2.5 goals. It does not matter which team scores and in what order. It is specific to highly tense matches between teams with strong offensive prowess.
Considering Stuttgart – Dusseldorf email@example.com X@3.90 firstname.lastname@example.org and in excess of 2.5 goals has a quota @1.70.
If these were two distinct bets, we would require 1.80 + 1.70 = 3.50 (final quota), and if the bets were placed on the same combined ticket, we would have 1.80 * 1.70 = 3.06 (total quota). However, merging the two bets into one, i.e. 1&3+, the betting house quota is @2.65. The difference between @2.65 and @3.06 is not great and one may not argue losses at the percentages offered. Why is that? Because one may not bet on two distinct events in a match on the same ticket.
The betting house provides a reasonable quota, lower than the product of the individual quotas, but higher than each such quota. It is natural and we should consider a margin of the quotas that is higher, or lower, on various markets, depending on how the operators is adjusting to such markets.
Let’s refer to the Sepsi – Voluntari match in the first league of Romania. Sepsi – Voluntari SEemail@example.com SE-X@3.85 SEfirstname.lastname@example.org. In this case, the punters seem to go for a host win, however, a tie should not be disregarded. A guest win is not a surprise as the quota is high enough.
Based on the premise that a tie score is an opportune bet, you take a @3.85 quota, but you want to combine it with something to increase it. You reach the number of goals and think a big number as the match is open and the history of the two teams is one of high scores. Plus the current shape and the distribution of the two offensives. To conclude, 4+ (4 goals or more) equals X and 4+.
The total quota at X&4+ is @14.8, very high, it seems, and a RON 100 bet win generate a RON 1,380 win.
However, the X eliminates the possibility of a victory and another goal over 4 is not an option. Neither are two on the part of each team because the tie would be out of the question. Each goal over 4 automatically presupposes another one from the opposite side. This is to maintain the bet successful.
2-2 is a favorable result, 3-2 or 2-3 are not wanted, 3-3 is another favorable result. What is beyond 3-3 may be considered a difficult-to-predict match with a tint of unforeseeable events.
however, 2-2 has a quota @27.6, while a 3-3 quota is @100. It suffices to place a simple bet on a correct 2-2 score also using half the stake, and the win is higher.
Let’s take another example, the Monaco-Nimes match. In this case we are dealing with a Multiscore bet, which is comprised of three correct scores in one quota.
1-0, 2-0, 3-0 are the scores anticipated at a final quota @3.55. This means a win to nil by the Monegasque team, no need for a score of epic proportions. Considering the home-field advantage, the superior value of the team, the pressing need for points, this may be a valuable bet.
But what if you bet separately on the three correct scores?
There is a 2-0 score at the end of the match. If you placed a multiscore bet, you win. If you placed the 3 correct scores distinctly, you win.
Multiscor @3.55 – bet 100 – win 355 – 100. You are winning in fact 255.
1-0 @9.50 – bet 100 – loss
2-0 @8.50 – bet 100 – win 750
3-0 @13 – bet 100 – loss
In this case, the actual win is 750 – 300 = 400. The win is utterly superior, but also requires a significantly higher betting budget.
The conclusion is clear enough and the calculation of profitability are easy to make.
How to take advantage of the complex bets
In some cases, the easiest way is to avoid complex bets. This reality is demonstrated mathematically. But there are cases in which complex bets prove valuable.
We are referring to the bets that subtract 2 potential results into one, i.e. the result at the break or at the end of the match, the classical PSF. In this case, the quotas are valuable due to merging the two quotas into one.
As for the bet on the result at the end of a break, in which, for instance, the guest wins at the break/do not win at the end of one break at least. Or the host wins at one break at the least.
So we have or minimum. These terms may can be used by betting operators in reference to combined bets.
In the Liverpool – Southampton match email@example.com X@7.00 firstname.lastname@example.org, the difference of appreciation between the chances of the host and a tie or win is clear. Technically, this is a 1 Solo match, a match punters consider as good as won by the cormorants. However, the quota may seem a little bit low, so you might want to search for a combined bet to increase its worth.
The first option is 1&over 1.5 goals, but a @1.30 quota is still too low. Even 1&over 2.5 goals at email@example.com quota does not seem satisfactory. This is how you reach at 1&over 3.5 goals.
The quota becomes supra-unitary, the statistics and the form of the teams indicate a match with great scoring chances and you will stop at this bet.
To take real advantage thereof, you must find bets with valuable quotas. This way, the margins of the quotas will take their toll. Do not let yourself fooled by a quota which is apparently higher.
The betting operators find it easier to operate with the margin. For punters, the above-the-average quotas are those which make a difference.
by Mircea Panait