How much money remains in the machines? Part 2

Tuesday, 3 September 2013

Text: Laurențiu Neacșu – General Manager Royal Cash

In the second part of this presentation we will present more details about the behavior and volatility of the software, other two variables used to estimate the money we find at some point in a slot-machine device.

If the first part of the exposure we discussed more commonly known things  – i.e., the stake, percentage of winning, jackpot – in this second part we will try to deal using a language as accessible as possible, concepts that are less known to the general public, but which are equally important in the appreciation of the money that accumulate in the device. I remind you the formula that we started with:

where

M = the unit value of the stake; N = no. of games; q = player’s behavior; V = volatility of the game; P = the winning percentage; S = balance;

In previous articles we discussed more extensively about the behavior of the player, as an important element for the accountability of the device. Basically, as I said, the player is the one who decides at any time of the game if he risks his credits won at the dubbing, if he enters those in the House or if you withdraws all his money. The way in which players apply these three options, depending to their free will, constitutes a criterion for the differentiation of their typology and, at the same time, an important factor in influencing the balance of the devices.

‘Time on machine” players usually prefer to introduce the money in the House or to risk small winnings, doubling them maximum twice. This behavior tends to push the percentage of the payment to a maximum so as to match the percentage of winning of the game.

The typical ‘risk ‘ player tends to neglect the minor winnings and as a rule he does not enter his winnings in the House, unless he doubled at least twice. With regard to the money withdrawal from the device, they pursue certain targets by going on an “all or nothing” principle. Others are pursuing some rare winning combinations, which have a very high winninngs percentage and only see the accumulation of credits by dubbing as an intermediate game strategy. This type of players can lose large amounts of money just to be satisfied that they have obtained the desired winning combination. These players are big jackpot and amateurs and play high-stakes hoping to obtain it. Some of them manage to do that.

Ambient players and the players who are accompanying some friends have more diverse game behaviors. As a rule, they come prepared to lose a certain amount of money. They are not interested in money, but in spending some quality time. As a rule, their game behavior in relation to the risk to double depends on the group or their disposal in that moment. If they happen to obtain a jackpot they place their money back not for exceeding their limit, but to have something to tell to their children’s children.

Description of the above game behaviors shows without a doubt that the amount of money found at some point in the machine varies depending on the type of players who have been in front of the device, regardless of the number of games and stakes placed by them. Mathematical expression of that behavior is performed by using statistical means.

Our conclusion is the following: more players willing to risk, means higher device balance and the tendency to equal the value of the entered money (i.e. the initial bets, which have not been replayed after the winnings normally awarded by the device).

“The volatility of the game” (v) is a probabilistic factor indicating the frequency of extreme winnings: 0 or greater than 100%. A powerful and volatile game is a game with big losses and big winnings, an adrenaline game, where players can bring home the “bacon”. Volatile games are usually those with additional winnings and special games. By excellence, the jackpot is the most volatile type game.

We brought volatility into disscution because it is an important factor in analyzing the short-term cash deposit of the device. Thus, even if during a volatile game, after a small number of games, a significant amount of money came into the machine, there is a very high chance that the game will provide a significant win or a series of smaller but frequent wins, in order to reach the percentage of winnings declared by the manufacturer. The more a device is played, the higher is the volatility’s proclivity to 1, having a smaller importance to the machine’s accountability.

For example: in the case of a game with a maximum 1:2,000 winning percentage, extreme volatility is 0,002. Meaning that in order for the machine to give that win, there must be a minimum number of games 2000 x 1stake x 1/ 0.9 winning percentage, i.e. 2.221 games without winning. In this ideal situation, the software respects the percentage stated by manufacturer (90%) and offers the maximum win with an extreme volatility. Under the same conditions, the volatility would halve if the game would provide two wins of 1: 1,000 and 2.220 games without winning.

The volatility becomes important for the games where you stake less per unit of time. Very often when checking the device we’re glad to find lots of money in it and at the end of the day there is a surprising win that sweeps away any hope of rapid enrichment. Those who watch only the balance of the device often suffer these oscillations and tend to develop true neurosis. What these people do not understand is that the software is impartial and is steadfastly in following equations in order to deliver the ultimate stated winning percentage. To avoid these situations of stress, it is advisable to follow the amount of credits staked, and the amount of credits disbursed by the device, and to consider the final balance of the device as indicated by the manufacturer. If we find more money, then it’s safe to expect in a more or less near future to a win that will likely settle the device’s accountability once more. The more the device is played, the closer this future will be.

Author: Editor

Share This Post On

Submit a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *