Romanian Bookmakers – report from the front line of professional representation

In the following period of time, Romanian Bookmakers shall initiate important debates with the authorities on the most current challenges and needs of the gambling market!

 

Obviously, the legislation dedicated to gambling continues to be perfectible in certain aspects. For example, regu­lation is still required so that, upon the authority’s adoption of a measure which shall lead to the temporary or definitive cease of the operator’s activity, the ONJN (National Office for Gambling) summons the operator’s represen­tatives as to allow the just possibility of expressing a point of view. Another need would be that of clearly correlating sanctions disposed as a result of ONJN inspections for the acknowledged legal violations.

GEO 77/2009 and the norms associated to it currently offer, however, a coherent regulation framework, the effect being that the gambling industry is more and more stable and organized. Under these circumstances, the current industry challenges more frequently originate from other areas. These are what the Romanian Bookmakers – The Patronage of Betting Organizers in Romania are focusing on, in their effort in determining the achievement of certain objective which are undoubtedly necessary for profile operators.

 

The General Data Protection Regulation – the need to elaborate an industry code of ethics

Undoubtedly, the trickiest issue with which the gambling operators are currently confronted is the entry into force of the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPRR) this month. Romanian Bookmakers has conducted a series of relevant consultations on this matter lately, both with representatives of the targeted companies, as well as with those of other professional organizations in the field.

As such, it came down to the conclusion that the field’s specificity imposes the elaboration of a code of ethics within the application of the GDPR. This is actually invoked within the Regulation (Art. 40, but also under different other areas of the new regulation framework) and may have a determining role in several areas. Specifically, GDPR encourages the elaboration of code of ethics which are specific and associated to each field of activity, exactly with the purpose of facilitating and simplifying the implementation of new provisions for commercial actors in the respective field. The code of ethics shall therefore, primarily, have the role of clarifying, for the operator, the manner in which to achieve compliance with regulations provisions.

Furthermore, and perhaps even more important, it shall represent the incredibly useful work document based on which the state authority, in this case the National Supervisory Authority for Personal Data Processing (ANSPDCP (RO)), shall fulfil its functions in relation with the commercial agent in a more efficient manner. Here, we especially refer to the mission of resolving complaints, monitoring and control.

This assessment of the code of ethics’ utility as operator/authority interface has lead to the conclusions that initiating its drafting is imperative. Romanian Bookmakers shall undertake this action in collaboration with other professional associations within the industry, following that it propose ANSPDCP a draft until the end of August 2018.

After having received approval for the code from the relevant authority, the companies shall be invited to adhere to this document, following that compliance, implementation of the Regulation and each member’s relation with the ANSPDCP to be conducted according to the code of ethics.

”We shall initiate a consultation with the ONJN and ANSPDCP representative. However, we have yet to have contact with the National Supervisory Authority for Personal Data Processing, but we are convinced that we shall find a constructive approach there both with regards to elaborating the code of ethics and with regards to other aspects which must be clarified and harmonized with the purpose of implementing GDPR. We wish that the relevant authority actually contribute and to support us in elaborating this document. This collaboration is absolutely necessary, if we take into consideration the Regulation’s complexity and the multiple aspects it reaches and claims”, described Doru Gheorghiu, executive director at Romanian Bookmakers, which is to be undertaken by the organization he represents.

 

ONJN shall exert its supervisory and control functions on the new regulations regarding the fight against money-laundering, as well!

It should be noted that the draft law on preventing and combating money laundering and terrorist financing comes with extremely drastic regulations for gambling operators. The good news could come from Romanian Bookmakers, by means of obtaining and exemption of sports betting, both conventional and remote, from these provisions. The Patronage of Betting Organizers in Romania continue to conduct, based on solid arguments, the necessary actions as to obtain this exemption, approach, for that matter, encouraged by EC Directive 849/2015. “In our assessment, the transposition of the Directive in national legislation shall be conducted toward the end of this year. In March 2018, the National Office for Preventing and Combating Money-Laundering made public a new version of the draft law in question, following that, soon, it enter undergo parliamentary procedure”, explains Doru Gheorghiu, executive director of Romanian Bookmakers.

Distinct from the procedure for obtaining the exemption of sports betting operation from the regulation of the future law, the Patronage of Betting Organizers in Romania shall initiate a dialogue with ONJN, given that implementing the provisions under this draft law, as well as the supervision and monitoring, are specified as work attributions of the Office. In other words, the gambling operators, identified as reporting entities within the draft for the amendment of Law no. 656/2002, shall still report to the state authority destined for the gambling industry with regards to compliance with the new regulations.

As such, a consultation with ONJN on this future law is absolutely necessary, consultation which the Romanian Bookmakers shall initiate and support.

 

Romanian Bookmakers has been actively involved in obtaining a modern, non-discriminatory legal framework, harmonized with the European norms and principles. The Patronage’s approach has evolved from reactive, aiming the cancellation or mitigation of the negative effects of certain draft laws launched without prior consultation of the industry representatives, to proactive, respectively, improvement of the already implemented legislation. However, our efforts must be focused more and more toward the inside of the industry, as to increase the degree of awareness,  compliance and social implication of the organizers. We still have a long way to go to reach a fundamental change of the public opinion’s perception, that of the political class and of the governors with regards to the economic activity that we conduct. But I strongly believe this is the right way to succeed in achieving the level of legislative and tax stability we all wish to have.

 

Liviu Popovici, President of the Romanian Bookmakers

 

Romanian Bookmakers, partner of IOC and Interpol in combating the manipulation of sports events

 

The Romanian Bookmakers continue to be the representation vector of Romania’s sports betting industry in the actions regarding combating the manipulation of sports events. The Patronage of Betting Organizers in Romania received a request, on behalf of the International Olympics Committee (IOC) and Interpol, to present an opinion on this matter, respectively, the participation at Integrity in Sport Multi-Stakeholder Workshop.

Hosted by the Romanian Olympic and Sports Committee (COSR (RO)) headquarters, the debate was part of a series of meetings that IOC and Interpol are organizing within the Global Capacity Building and Training Program, the purpose being that of helping as many countries as possible in addressing in a more and more efficient manner this criminal phenomenon with negative impact upon the sports activity.

The Bucharest Workshop benefited from the input of relevant speakers in the international effort of combating the “fixed” sports events phenomenon, respectively Interpol officers, IOC representatives or representatives of the European Council. Alongside them, representatives from COSR, the Romanian Football Federation, Sports Radar were also present, as well as representatives of relevant companies, representatives of Romanian Bookmakers.

“I am glad to have had the occasion of realizing that all vectors involved have a correct understanding of the betting operator’s position in this unwanted equation. As important is the conclusion that manipulating sports events does not invariably have as purpose obtaining gains form betting and that this scourge may have various other generating causes, such as, for example, a better sports classification”, stated Doru Gheorghiu, executive director at Romanian Bookmakers

For that matter, Romanian Bookmakers has been conducting a collaboration protocol with the Romanian Sports Federation since 2012, beyond the information exchange and warnings with regards to sports events, several common campaigns and programs for the promotion of integrity in sports being conducted.

 

Future lawyers are more and more interested in gambling

 

The Romanian branch of the European Law Students Association, ELSA Bu­cha­rest, often organizes conferences and seminars dedicated to the legislation applicable to the field of gambling, and Romanian Book­makers has become one of the organizations per­manently invited to hold lectures within these events.

The Patronage of Betting Organizers in Romania moderated a debate with the future lawyers and judges, within the conference ”Gaming Law: another type of game”, held at the Faculty of Law of Bucharest University.

The discussion held with the approximatively 50 students who were present focused on establishing the lawmaker’s relation to the gambling field. Therefore, the Romanian Bookmakers representatives analysed, together with those present, the effects manifested in countries in which governance had a restrictive approach to this field, but also the situations in which the approach was overly liberal. The formulation of the national legislation was considered by the future lawyers as an efficient position of the Romanian state in relation to the gambling industry.

Finally, many of those present showed interest in specializing in gambling after graduation.

 

Romanian Bookmakers – The Patronage of Betting Orga­nizers in Romania continues to be one of the most active professional organizations in Romania’s gambling industries, succeeding, over the past few years, in efficiently addressing the most important needs faced by this business sector.

Romanian Bookmakers is…

– a member of the Romanian General Union of Industrialists (UGIR (RO)), benefiting from the support of this patronage confederation, a reference for the national business envi­ronment in its actions, especially those aiming at formulating or amending legislation

– founding member of the Responsible Game Association, position from which it developed, supports and conducts, alongside partner organizations, the most important program for the prevention and treatment of addictive manifestations generated by gambling

– sole signatory on behalf of the gambling industry of the protocol with the Romanian Football Federation on information exchange and warnings with regards to sports events manipulation

(Română) UEFA și ESSA se aliază pentru a combate aranjarea meciurilor

Sorry, this entry is only available in Romanian.

“The magic quota” of football main stars

by Valentin Macovei

We present to you two bizarre strategies which could allow you to win good money from sports betting without investing too much time in analyzing matches…

Not too long ago, I came across the material of an anonymous punter, who, even though seemed as a true conman at first glance, presented an outstandingly simple strategy, but also interesting, which made me think. The method goes like this: “Pick 3 odds of football soloists between 1.40 and 1.60 and bet on them in one ticket.” The punter in question said that we don’t even have to analyze the respective prognoses.

The minimum odd of a ticket made according to the anonymous punter’s strategy is of 2.74 (1.4 x 1.4 x 1.4), and the maximum odd is of 4.09 (1.6 x 1.6 x 1.6). We, however, because we wish to draw a simple and fast conclusion, shall use the average odd as reference, and that is 3.37 (1.5 x 1.5 x 1.5). That means that we need 1 winning ticket out of the 3 played to make a profit, grosso modo, in the case in which we use a fixed stake for each ticket.

As the anonymous punter did not suggest any money management method, we can also take into account a progressive stake management strategy, such as that of the fixed profit. Its feasibility depends, however, on the variation which could affect us by playing this way. We have to calculate this, either by performing simulations on already established events, or by experimenting such an approach for a long period of time. The question we must answer before trying a progressive stake system is: “How many such losing tickets can we catch in a row?”

However, regardless of the chosen money management, it is easy to realize that this novel method has a major advantage compared to the others: Compared to most sports bets strategies, in order to practice the “magic odd” strategy, you don’t have to watch matches or the news or follow statistics to bet, so you won’t be wasting too much time to establish prognoses for each stage, however, it would be good to inspect the specific of the leagues on which you are going to bet before starting.

Starting from the anonymous punter’s strategy, I thought of performing a series of strategies using prognoses which fall under the “magic odd” interval, but I didn’t use the tickets in the battery, but individual bets instead. Here are the results:

League 1, fotbal

  • In League 1 regular season 2017/2018 (without play-out and play-off), 182 matches were disputed.
  • Of these, there were 28 soloists whose average odd was between 1.40 and 1.60.
  • 20 selections were winning selections, having an average odd of 1.51, and 8 were losing selections.
  • The results of the simple simulation, based on the exact average quotas of each match (according to an odds comparison platform which considers the coefficients from the offers of tens of on-line sports betting operators), indicate a 8.3% return on investment in the case in which we would have bet on a fixed amount on each of the 28 selections.

Premier League

  • In the first 30 stages of the Premier League’s 2017/2018 season, 300 matches were disputed.
  • No less than 34 favorites have had a victory odd between 1.40 and 1.60.
  • 24 selections were winning selections, having an average odd of 1.50, while 10 were losing selections.
  • Performing the same simulation as in the case above, we discovered that we would have obtained a 5.6% return on investment if we would have bet individually – using the same stake – on all 34 selections.

What we discovered in the analyzed cases

The balance after the first 10 stages of the analyzed championship was not a positive one, so, in order to render the profit efficient, it would be best to avoid the first 10 rounds, period in which the teams barely have time to get into the rhythm of the game; afterwards, the odds become somewhat more predictable.

In the regular Jupiler League 2017/2018 season, such an approach would have lead to a ROI of -10%, which indicated that this unwritten rule of the “magic odd” does not apply in all cases and that we should nonetheless do our homework before investing money in a strategy based on tips with odds between 1.40 and 1.60.

What is interesting is the fact that we redid the simulation for the Belgian championship excluding the first 10 stages, and the situation changed completely: in the last 160 matches in the Jupiler League current regular season, we calculated a 1.9% return on investment.

Don’t forget that, for this experiment, we used the average odds of the prognoses and not the best odds available at that time on the market. The average odds are useful to indicate the prognoses which fall under the “magic odd” interval, however, in order to play the predictions, it would be indicated that we choose the most valuable odds each time offered by on-line betting operators and other punters, on the Betting Exchange platforms. Speculating the best coefficients, we can as such have a greater return on investment.

Conclusions and advice

There would be a lot of things to discuss and to analyze, but here are several interesting things that we were able to discover in only a few hours. With regards to the gaming strategy the anonymous punter proposed, I can’t express myself regarding the 3 sections on the ticket, you will have to experiment with that on your own, as the prognoses combination introduces luck, hunch and so on into the equation.

Now, referring to the simplified strategy, proposed by me, in which the selections are played individually, things seem to be somewhat clearer. As an advice, I would recommend that you analyze the results from several seasons of several leagues and to choose those which seem to respect the model of the last two-three seasons. Concurrently, it is crucial to have accounts with top on-line batting operators and on the Betting Exchange platform licensed in our country, as to bet each time where you find the largest odd.

We have to admit: The strategy seems promising. What is certain is that the time investment is minimum, the “gross” being performed at the beginning, following that later on the template initially established be used. We are no longer interested in unavailable players, how the weather is, what the momentary form says and so on.

Do not expect to get rich overnight, as there is no fixed formula to guarantee profit in sports betting. Do not invest in gambling more than you can afford to lose. Please bet responsibly!

How do we bet on the number of cards and referred impact – Part 1

by Mircea Panait

This is not the first time when I write about betting on yellow cards, but this I will tackle the correlations made at both substitutions, and the number of cards. This is where the referee, a factor intended to be objective, steps in, but we all know this far from being true.

The referee (in particular) and the team of referees (in general) do influence the gameplay, and sometimes even decide the winning team, or manifestly help one of them.

It has been formally documented that in the modern game, the leading teams are playing increasingly fairer, but the lower leagues are still filled with violence, blows and kicks which go way beyond what one could considered a manly game, or assaults which are rather specific to other sports.

Sport betting industry is in full swing, and the markets which seem to have grown substantially lately are those of the bets on the number of cards and the substitutions of the two teams. Before, bookmakers only offered betting on red cards, and a line with a score on cards. Things have changed a lot, and now we can find bets on: first player to see a card, number of cards and the players to see them, last player to see a card, and some bookmakers have introduced even more refined options.

Red cards

While the Italian Serie A sees in general less yellow cards than the Spanish La Liga, Italians are redder than Spaniards. One red card is shown at every 3.26 matches vs. 3.66 in the top Spanish football.

Red cards are pretty difficult to judge because they are usually the outcome of a virtually impossible to foresee event. Statistics has shown that most of the sent-offs occur further to an uncalled for defiance. We will never know for sure that is going on in the mind of each player, or whether things can escalate, but there are still some indications and signs one can read out. The most important are:

– the stakes of the match, either play-out or play-off, or a critical game in the Cup;

– the history of two players, their rivalry and appetite for roughing. A classical example would be that of the duels between Martin Skrtel and Diego Costa;

local derbies, that is matches between two historically rival team which lead to unsportsmanlike conduct on, and sometimes even out of the pitch;

– the recent track-record of the referee, meaning the number of red cards shown, and their frequency, as well as their propensity for “an iron fist” approach of the match. There we can also include the relation between the referee and players, knowing that some referees have tensed relations with some players.

Some matches have a rich track-record of red cards, even if these are not important matches. Still, this does not call for a bet. It is, indeed, an indicator, but never a safe bet. Another approach encountered is that of the matches broadcast on TV, where many punters tend to overrate the cards, relying on rivalry and the fact that viewers are focused on some particular players. Such an approach is pretty risky, and my advice to you is to bet only after a thorough analysis of the 4 factors above.

Players who see cards

To my mind, those a very pleasant and interesting market. It is like betting that a player will score: it calls for a stroke of luck, but also gives a tremendous satisfaction to be able to anticipate the player who will see an yellow or red card. Many are drawn by the “entertainment” provided by this market, as the long-term profit opportunities are virtually missing, but when correctly approached, it is a market better that it would appear at a first glance.

Of course, other markets/bets, such as: what team would see a card first or what team would see more cards, could prove valuable in the long-run, after 2,000 bets.

While for goals we need to look at forwarders, with cards out attention should be focused on midfielders and defenders. But don’t loose goalies out of sight: some are professional stallers and thus yellow card seers. These worth following up.

The player to see the next card is my personal favorite because this type is a 90-minute bet, or for as long as the player one pursues remains on the pitch. It is always a good idea to understand the rules and be familiar with the specific laws of each division. For instance, in England, a player threatened with suspension will be extremely cautious when engaging in battle, so this type of bet should be avoided.

In the British football, suspension comes after a number of yellow cards seen, but these should be followed-up and studied carefully in the overall context of the teams. In Premier League, 10 yellow cards mean that a player stays out of two days.

When I write this article, the list of EPL players with already 4 cards was as follows:

AFC Bournemouth: Steve Cook, Harry Arter, Simon Francis

Brighton: Lewis Dunk, Glenn Murray, Anthony Knockaert

Burnley: Phil Bardsley, Jack Cork

Chelsea: Antonio Rudiger

Crystal Palace: Jason Puncheon

Everton: Idrissa Gueye, Ashley Williams

Huddersfield: Tommy Smith

Manchester City: Vincent Kompany, Leroy Sane, Fernandinho

Manchester Utd: Marcos Rojo, Ashley Young, Ander Herrera

Stoke: Kevin Wimmer, Joe Allen

Totenham Spurs: Jan Vertonghen, Harry Kane

West Brom Albion: Jonny Evans, James McClean, Allan Nyom, Claudio Yacob

 

We see that WBA plays rough and collects cards, but City hangs in very well too, and so does Manchester United. This means that each match can come with fair play surprises; however, any analysis would still follow the aforementioned principles.

 

Betting on cards gains more and more ground, and it is my tip of a different approach. You will watch the matches from a completely different perspective, and even might discover how profitable they really are.

To be continued with the impact of referees on sports betting.

How to become a better punter without necessarily placing individual bets

by Valentin Macovei

We aren’t all made to be able to become great punters and to make a living out if this. If we would at least try to find out the steps to be followed as to bet like professionals, we would surely find out that we are supposed to bet 2% of the bank on individual bets, trying to find the hidden value of the odds provided by various on-line bet operators.

But maybe we don’t have a sufficiently large budget as to fund at least 5 different betting accounts and to feel something if you achieve an investment output of 5%. Or maybe we don’t feel that adrenaline that we are used to if we only place individual bets, which more often than not are placed on the least probable result, because of a better odd which seems to have a slightly greater value than the preferred bet.

And maybe we don’t have the time or we simply don’t like to spend hours on end analyzing games and split hairs as to estimate as efficiently as possible the real odds of the targeted events, nor to specialize on two or three championships, but we like to bet on the most popular games of each day.

What does this mean, that we are condemned to be eternal losers when it comes to sports bets and that we have to settle with the loser tag? Not at all. Even though, theoretically, an approach different from that of professionals has slim chances of success, we shouldn’t generalize. We can make our own luck and we can hope for profit even if we don’t respect those principles.

Fine, that doesn’t mean we should get above ourselves…

It’s a sure thing that we won’t get anywhere if our tickets will be as long as a grocery list. However, there is a middle way or better said, several strategies which have allowed certain punters to be successful, at least in the medium run, if not the long run. Let’s say a few things about them:

The “Odd 2, 3 times and start over” Strategy

This is one of the oldest functioning strategies we have tried. Even though it is pretty risky, it has a moderate degree of feasibility and seems to meet almost all requirements of an average punter. In essence, it uses a simple money management: the bank is divided by 4 and each piece represents a hand.

Let’s say that we have a bank of RON 400, the bet of one hand would be RON 100. We will bet the RON 100 on a ticket with an odd of approximatively 2. It could even be 1.85, but also 2.25, as the odd in itself shouldn’t have such a say in picking tips, but rather in their chance of success.

As a basic rule, we will never play singles (only doubles or penalties) and we won’t pay individual bets or tickets with more than 3 predictions. In other words, we will choose two or three selections. If we play two selections, we can have 1.40 x 1.45, 1.20 x 1.70 or 1.30 x 1.60 odds, and in the case in which we have 3 selections, we will need this type of odds: 1.30 x 1.25 x 1.25 or 1.15 x 1.50 x 1.20.

The idea is to win 3 consecutive bets, in the context in which after each win, we will reinvest the initial amount and the profit it has generated. In other words, we will roll the amount 3 times, hoping to achieve a total odd of approximatively 8, but it can also be 7.30 or 9.20, so we don’t have to be so preoccupied by the odd.

The most important advice with regards to the strategy is to not look for bets to make the odd. If actually aren’t convinced by sufficient bets as to achieve the 2 odd, we can either bet on the tips we are sure of, or we can skip that respective day.

Normally, we can try to play a hand to the end, but certain punters prefer to play several hands in parallel, as to not suffer such a great disappointment when they loose the bet from step 3. Here, honestly, it all depends on preference…

The line of doubles

A very small part of good punters in the world play combo tickets, however they have no more, no less than two selections. It’s even more interesting because, usually, they don’t aim at obtaining a certain odd, but actually just combine to predictions on a ticket, of course, playing an identical hand on each ticket.

Why play doubles, when they are perfectly aware of the fact that during each selection added to the ticket, the betting house multiplies its win margin, and implicitly, the punter loses some of the bet’s value?

The answer is a little peculiar and though to explain. However, if we think that having two 2 odds on a ticket we reach a total odd of 4, that means we need to get only 25.1% of the bets to make profit. Concurrently, if the value of the total odd is slightly lower compared to a simple bet, it doesn’t seem at all hard to win 3 tickets with two selections out of 10 played, right? Well, if we don’t try, we will never truly figure it out!

The Stressed Punter Method

This is the method successfully used by a punter in our country, who rounded up his income constantly, practically doubling the salary he was earning. However, I feel the need to specify the fact that the said punter complained very often about the stress caused by this strategy.

The Stressed Punter Method was a very simple one: He made a daily selection of predictions which he evaluated as having the highest chances of success. I’ve seen a few dozens of his tickets and I can tell you that they included predictions from several sports and even options of less used bets, such as bets on the numbers of football corners and others as such; most of predictions were on goals, during football games, predominantly on the Over 1.5 goals bet.

In the end, he prepared 3 or 4 tickets of 4-5 predictions each, which had odds between 3.50 and 5.00, sorting them after the time the sports events started. In other words, each ticket had to end before the other began.

His idea was simple: he established a targeted profit for himself, usually somewhere between RON 100 and 150, after which he bet the first ticket calculating the stake depending on the ticket’s #1 odd and the established objective. If the ticket won, either he stopped betting that day, or he started over with another hand. If the ticket didn’t win, he recalculated the stakes and the loss as to obtain the same profit.

On the days when none of the tickets were winners, he accepted the defeat and continued in the same manner the next day, without increasing the stake in any way. From what he told me, he never had negative month, on the contrary, he made smaller or larger profits, however, the minimum wasn’t small at all. Now I can’t vouch for his good honesty, but all I can say is that I’ve seen many of his winning tickets…

The punter who invented the strategy told me this: “If you aren’t capable of catching a 4 odd ticket out of 4 played in one day, then it means that you should give up betting”. Okay, maybe we shouldn’t be so harsh, there are also bad days, but I think you got the message. As starting bank, the punter recommended that I have enough money to cover 4 losing bet days and that’s about it.

The “2 odd per week” Strategy

This strategy is extremely simple, however it requires a lot of patients on the punter’s part – quality which lacks, unfortunately, in most risk enthusiasts. Even though it isn’t an Easy Money, as it has an extremely realist objective, this strategy is one as prudent as they come.

Practically, the bank is divided by 4 and the goal is to obtain a 2 odd by selecting the most sure selections of the week. You can either individually on predictions, rolling the amount until achieving the 2 odd or simply making a ticket. The idea is, however, to not play odds bigger than 1.20 and become singles.

You can play very small odds, but you don’t have to select all the selections in one day, but rather to follow games from the following week and in the end, to select the surest tips to bet on.

If we loose the ticket, we can continue playing that week, but if we win, it would be wise not to rush into betting again, but to wait for the following week to play the next ticket, with the same hand, of course. It is true that this strategy is slower, but those who have the gift of patience may profit from it.

In conclusion, I can only hope that at least one of these strategies is to your liking and that you will try to use it. Most times, you can count on your good sense, which will tell you where you went wrong and what’s to be done. Don’t forget to have fun, because in the end, that’s what matters!

What we need to know about the Under or Over bets in football

by Mircea Panait

In practice, the trend is clear now, “more goals” or “GG” (both teams score), however the rhythm is dictated by the way football is going in general. When the Milan – Juventus (0-0) final was played, during the periods dominated by the Mourinho or Benitez philosophies, the trend was at most equal, if not toward “Under”.

By comparison to other sports, football is a sport in which people rarely score. More than that, a team is always happy with the result displayed on the score table.

A team with an identity built over the years rarely gives up their manner of playing. Mourinho’s inter is the best example, the Italian team didn’t succeed with Ronaldo and Vieri, or, why not Lucescu, however, it hit the goldmine with Mourinho, probably a fan of another Portuguese, Helenio Herrera, also at Inter. Italians are known as inventors of the Catenaccio system, except that Inter started the “game”.

The specific of the championships is also important and I’ll give you the example of the Premier League, where big teams score a lot in the weaker teams’ gate, while live games between top teams are played with less than 3 goals. Sure, referees also play a role in this, the English letting the game run more freely, while in other parts the balance is slowly broken with a penalty or an elimination. It’s not all about the theory, we are better at championships we are familiar with, the problem there is that the betting houses are just as good. However, live games are at an advantage, if both teams have a mean of 2.7 goals per game, the quota of “Over” shall be adjusted accordingly, because a good odds bookie may in fact increase or decrease the odds by @1.1 or @1.5, somewhat unnoticeable, however, important. The houses have employed alongside statistics specialists, oddmakers who are in charge of exactly this, “discovering the black swans”.

There are three important principles when betting under/over at football:

  1. Mean number of goals per game
  2. the compared xG of both teams
  3. Finding the odds which have value and are worth betting on

Premier League has a mean of 2.7 goals scored/game, Italy A Series already exceeds 2.72 goals scored/game, while the La League in Spain has a mean of 2.74 goals/game.

The championship with the highest mean of scored goals is the first Filipino League, the mean being of 5.75, and the third is the Spanish Third League, Tercera Division is the league with the lowest goal mean per game, 1.75. Anyway, it is best to start by studying the mean of scored goals of each team during a game you want to bet on.

We have analyzed the xG in a previous edition of our magazine, however, the idea is to compare each team’s xG, the expectancy to score for each of the two rivals.

After having found the valuable odd you wish to bet on, perform a short comparative analysis. If you have determined that odd to be good at @1.85 and you find a betting house with @1.91, hesitate no longer. But if you find yourself in a betting house offering you odds lower than those you expect, then move on.

Any type of bet is exclusively linked to another, as any event on the field influences another, the differences matter for any under/above bet we would want. The most used by the punter is the under/over 2.5 goals for simple bets. Over 1.5 goals is the most found on all betting tickets, and the betting houses trade on under/over 1.5 goals in the first half.

Coming back to under/over 2.5 goals, in Europe’s great championships of the 2017/2018 season, we see the following means:

– France Ligue 1 – mean of scored goals per game is of 2.65

– Germany Bundesliga – mean of scored goals per game is of 2.74

– Netherlands Eredivisie – mean of scored goals per game is of 3.08

– Russia Premier League – mean of scored goals per game is of 2.29

– Portugal Primeira Liga – mean of scored goals per game is of 2.69

– Romania League 1 – mean of scored goals per game is of 2.4

– Belgium First Division – mean of scored goals per game is of 2.85

– Denmark Superliga – mean of scored goals per game is of 2.97

Even if we see means which exceed 2.5 goals, this does not mean that all games should be treated as “Over”. On the contrary, as championships advance, the tendency for the number of scored goals to decrease is imminent.

Observing the evident tendency to bet on over, over 2.5 goals, here is some advice from successful punters:

– choose an odd between @1.60 and @2.20 when betting on 2.5 goals. The odd must not be lower than @1.60, but not higher than @2.20, exactly for the reason of ensuring bet consistency.

– closely analyze the last 3 games of each team, the number of goals scored, the occasions and the times they had the ball.

– the start formations are incredibly important, the attacks of the two teams being analyzed in relation to the game relationships among forwards.

 

We shall continue with this analysis in our 2 next editions, following with an article dedicated to Under 2.5 goals and an article dedicated to Over 2.5 goals, and in the meantime, you can find other interesting information on Bettinginside.ro, our betting portal.

The Monty Hall problem in betting

by Mircea Panait

Often, we have to choose. In betting, these situations are frequent, and even after substantial analysis, less expected results may appear. Those moments when the odds seem against you, the quotas seem deceiving and you find yourself in a position where you don’t know what to do. I tried to find the answer and the viable solution to these issues in the article that follows.

What to do when the quotas are against you?

The solution to the Monty Hall problem

The Monty Hall problem is a first example of the manner in which, when faced with choosing a favorable result in place of two unfavorable results, we have a certain incapacity when correctly weighting the chances of success.

This is essential for the punter, because, in layman’s terms, if a punter cannot identify the implicit probability and the quotas offered by the betting houses which are “valuable” to him, it will be almost impossible for him to make money in the long run.

The Monty Hall problem

Let’s say you can win a car. The car is behind one of three doors. A goat is behind each of the other two. You must correctly guess behind which door the car is hiding, but you do not have the knowledge or information to allow you to choose the correct door.

After having chosen a door, one of the other doors opens to unveil one of the two goats. Now you have another option – exchange the chosen door or stand by your initial choice?

Named after the host of the show “Let’s make a deal”, a popular show in the USA during the ‘60s and ‘70s, which was the basis of the dilemma, the Monty Hall problem is a simple mathematic puzzle, which efficiently demonstrates the manner in which people fight with what seems to be a very direct choice.

With this simple riddle, but very cleverly presented, the show demonstrated the manner in which the ordinary person may demonstrate a counter-intuitive behavior when confronted with several possibilities at a time – and the same is valid for occasional punters, as well. When this question was asked in Parade magazine, 10,000 readers complained that the answer was not published correctly – including several math professors.

The solution to the Monty Hall problem

The solution to the Monty Hall problem is simple: always open the doors. After opening the first door, the car is certainly behind one of the two closed doors (even though you cannot know which door). The majority of contestants at the show did not intuitively see any advantage in opening the doors, presuming that each door has an equal probability (1/3).

This is incorrect – actually, the chances of winning the car double after opening the first door. Although it is true that the initially, each door had a 33.3% chance of the car being hid behind it, after unveiling the first goat, the probability of the car being behind the remaining closed door is of 66.6%.

It is easier to calculate these probabilities imagining that choosing between the original door (the probability of 33.3%) and the combined probabilities of the other two doors (33.3% + 33.3%). This is due to the fact that, once you choose a door, the other two doors are then associated together – there is a 66.6% chance behind one of those two doors. When one is then limited, there is still a 66.6% chance that the car is behind the remaining door.

What to do when the quotas are against you

This problem cleverly illustrates how easy it is to fall in the trap of treating non-random information as if they are random. The current British show “Deal or No Deal” – which implies 26 unopened boxes, and contain different quantities of cash – offers tribute to the show “Let’s make a deal”, exploiting in the same way the probability appreciated by a vast public. the contestants do not understand that they find themselves in a strong or weak position from a statistical point of view and, in exchange, act under the influence of certain false sentiments regarding chances of success.

Such mistakes are frequent in gambling games when punters act against their interests. Therefore, it is recommended that you treat bets responsibly and not be attracted by marketing traps believing that you can strike oil.

Bets need the ability of understanding of quotas offered during an event represents the statistical probability of the said event. It does not matter if it is the case of a football, tennis or basketball match, if you play the lottery or on-line sports betting, understanding and finding the value is the key to profit.

Specialization vs. Volume: Which would be the most profitable option in sports betting?

by Valentin Macovei

Is it better for a punter to play 30 or 300 predictions per month? We will try to answer this question which is on the mind of a great deal of sports betting enthusiasts in the following.

Each time, the same ideas are found among the advice provided by sports betting specialists, of which we will list those which are most often mentioned and also commonly supported by professionals:

  • The contouring of a separate budget destined for bets, which shall not imply the funds necessary for other expenses and the loss of which shall not affect the proper course of things of the person in question;
  • The application of a fixed or variable stake on a scale of 1 to 10 money management strategy;
  • Specializing on a certain sport, on several competitions and several teams or sports players;
  • Respecting the strategy initially established and setting realistic expectations, such as a 5% profit after each (complete) bank turnover.

All well and good, but with regards to the concept of specialization in sports betting, there are enough contradictory opinions – and for good reason.

When it comes too specialization, it is said that choosing certain more obscure niches most often represents winning moves. We are told that valuable bets within the world’s sports competitions matches are not so easily found, which is true most of the time, however, this sentence omits a large part of the truth.

What is it about? This is how it is:

  • The matches from less popular sports and competitions have quotas to which operators keep a larger winnings margin than in the case of those of top championships. Yes, as in, for example, the Premier League matches, on the primary lines we may find payouts of over 97%, which cannot be said for 4th league matches in Germany.
  • Sports betting houses offer users the possibility of playing relatively small amounts on the matches which do not benefit from great exposure, exactly because the risk of losing is very high in such confrontations. Furthermore, players who win several consecutive bets in such a competition are rapidly restricted or even banned from the site.
  • Not many betting markets open up to matched from relatively unknown tournaments, and the offer is most often published very late, and in certain cases we can bet on these types of games only live.
  • Another significant con is the fact that obscure leagues are usually not listed on the Betting Exchange platforms, and even when they are, the offer is almost never complete, therefore the punter cannot be sure that he will find a decent quota for the targeted prognostic.
  • The second hand sports events do not benefit from decent mass-media coverage (most often, the case of non-televised matches), nor decent coverage on social media networks, therefore, a last minute injury suffered by an important football player shall usually go unnoticed by the punter until the start of the match.

Even if we were not to take lesser known competitions into consideration, we must admit the fact that even specializing on two relatively popular championships would highly limit the number of bets we can play monthly, which can theoretically also significantly limit the profit we could expect.

In antithesis, the primary arguments for playing a large volume of prognostics each month are without a doubt the reciprocal annulment of bad luck and luck, as well a maximizing the player’s net profit. The calculation is simple: at a (realistic) 5% return on investment, the punter must play as many bet per month as to win as much money as possible.

Thinking that the football teams usually have between 4 and 6 matches per month, we realize that things are not so great for a punter niched on the king sport who chooses the specialization way, while a tennis specialist may play even more bets in a month is he closely monitors – let’s say – 10 players.

The paradox of the situation is the following: the specialization shall surely help the punter establish a greater number of correct predictions, however, this shall happen after a larger number of played tips. Practically, playing only a few prognostics per week, a niched player risk being significantly affected by bad luck and even to turn a loss at the end of the year. therefore, a punter who is not so specialized and who has a lower return of investment may make more profit (and faster), as long as he has a substantially larger volume of played tips.

However, which would be the best options, that of specializing in several competitions/teams/players or playing a considerable amount of tips monthly? It is very difficult to give an answer to this question, as there are enough variables which are to be specified before providing an answer (of course, in a particular manner and without generalizing).

If we were to look through several prediction sites from around the world, we would observe that the vast majority of top tipsters do not bet on football, even though it is the most bet on sport on the planet. On the other hand, we might think it is easier to rig a tennis match than a football match. as you can see, we may encounter real difficulties when it comes to choosing the sport on which to bet, as well – that is if we wish to treat bets seriously and not as a hobby.

The best thing that a punter wishing to perfect himself and to follow a professional approach, is to choose a success model for himself and to do his homework well. Yes, more specifically to copy the style of an efficient tipster, following his history and reading his analyses (where possible). Only after the player has acquired some experience and has several data, may he review the game style based on the kept registry, with hopes of progressing step by step.

Be warned, however, because it does not necessarily guarantee success, but it at least offers a path which favors punter maturity, aspect without which nobody may hope for a medium and long term profit!

What do we bet on at the 2018 Winter Olympics

by Mircea Panait

The 2018 Winter Olympics are at their first edition organized on Continental Asia’s territory. Pyeongchang has been chosen and the host city on 6 July 2011, at the 123rd IOC meeting in Durban, South Africa. Pyeongchang has won its third consecutive candidacy, after, in the past, the cities who won and organized the Olympics were Vancouver (Canada) and Soci (Russia).

At this year’s edition, a total of 102 sports events at 15 disciplines from 7 sports shall be included: ice skating(figure ice-skating, speed ice-skating and short track ice-skating), skiing (alpine skiing, cross-country skiing, acrobatic skiing, north combined, ski jumps and snowboard), bob (bob and skeleton), biathlon, curling, ice hockey and sled.

 

At this edition, the two countries sharing the Korean Peninsula: South Korea and North Korea will parade together at the opening ceremony! Furthermore, at the women’s hockey competition, they will line up a common team at the start line.

What valuable bets can we find at the 2018 Winter Olympics?

This year’s edition debuts on February 9th 2018, in PyeongChang in South Korea. No doubt millions of enthusiasts will watch the television transmissions, which represent a good occasion for participants to show off their talent. Many of those participating have trained, perhaps, for 4 years in light of the competition which will bring them a trophy and famousness in the sports world.

Before seeing which valuable options present interest, let’s stop and analyze the big 3 types of bets, present in most betting houses:

  1. The number of medals the country will win. If you turn your attention to the performances of a country and less to individual participation, then this is the right bet. You can bet almost anything: which country wins the most gold, silver, bronze medals, who will earn the most in total, under/over different limits.
  2. Betting on the winner. It’s about the classic bets placed on the winner of an event or of a round. Surely, the most popular bets and the largest amounts bet. For those who are truly specialized in winter sports, this is the best opportunity to win.
  3. Special bets. These are those bets placed more with the purpose of having fun, and not necessarily the best solution for profit. In general, these are bets placed on the opening ceremony, bets placed on the behavior of a certain athlete, or just other option ranging even up to weather.

Referring to valuable bets, we have to make a list of the choices that we are considering, followed by an analysis of each aspect. For those who are not familiar with winter sports, its is important to have knowledge about top athletes, each of their state of fitness, and any other information which may arise during the event. All of these lead to profitable choices.

Tips for the 2018 Winter Olympics in PyeongChang

With at least several days before the opening, Norway is rated as having the best chances for the number of medals won, with a quota of @2.40. Germany seconds very closely, being rated at @2.54. The USA and Canada are also close by, the Americans having a small advance.

If at Betfair Norway is rated as a first favorite, at Sportingbet we play on the Germans.

But let’s also focus on several tips deserving all of out attention.

Ice hockey: we bet on Russia

Maybe it’s not the best bet for those wishing to earn large and fast winnings, the Russians’ rate of victory being @2.65. For those looking for value in a bet, this is the most indicated. Even if Alexander Ovenchkin will not participate in these games, the Russian team is incredibly solid and the internal championship (second in the world as value) supports the national team completely. The fact that the NHL does not participate in the Olympics offers a perfect chance for the Russians to get the gold.

These discipline is Lindsey Vonn’s specialty, however the American is returning after a broken arm incident which cost her a year of inactivity. It may be an opportunity for one of the adversaries to take home the gold medal. Weirather, Huetter, Shiffin, they all have their chances, but Lara Gut seems to be the most entitled to the Olympic gold. The Swiss won a bronze medal in 2014 at Soci and with 9 years of experience, she has every chance of beating Lindsey Vonn. Many may argue that Vonn is the safer choice, however Vonn has a @5.00 rating and Gut @6.00, so the value is on the latter.

The most medals: Norway

This is the easiest category and perhaps, the most loved by punters. Here, however, you must have knowledge not only of favorites for an event, but of favorites for all events and their nationalities. This could be boring, but if you see it as an occasion to follow more Olympiads and truly familiarizing with the events, which can prove to be profitable.

 

Norwegians are the favorites for both categories and rightly so. They have proved to be the best at winter sports and their portfolio is impressive. Once with Russia’s restricted participation. because of a IOC decision to block many Russian athletes from participating in the competition, the Olympic Games will prove to be very interesting this year.

 

Norway has several of the best skiers in the world, both in the alpine versions and the cross-country versions, and the biathlon as well, were they will probably win the most gold medals. In fact, nine of their gold medals from Soci Olympic Games in 2014 come from these three categories and it is probable that many more will come this year, as well.

 

The United States won the most medals at the last two Winter Olympics, but this year, the Norths seem to be unstoppable. Their power lies in skiing, where Svindal, Jansrud and Kristoffersen are competing.

 

These being the proposed bets, I recommend that you follow the Winter Olympics, this being a competition underestimated by sports lovers. When a competition is underestimated, valuable bets may arise.