Arbitrage Betting or the “safe betting” method – What is it and what is it all about?!

Monday, 10 December 2018

Arbitrage Betting is arguably the simplest and safest way to make money out of bets. It can only be played online. However, betting houses have no tolerance for this method of profit and even take whatever steps necessary to track down and restrain those who choose to go there.

Strangely enough, anyone can play Arbitrage, even if they do not know sports or names of athletes or teams, after just a few minutes of training. This does not exclude attention, patience and a rather large budget to transform this occupation into a lucrative one…

Sounds good, tempting? Let us see what this is all about!

What is the meaning of Arbitrage Betting?

Arbitrage is a method of placing two or several bets to cover almost all the results that may emerge on a betting market; once placed, these bets should garner sure profit for the gambler, irrespective of the outcome of that event.

However, how can one do this since every operator withholds a specific fee from the quotas and the chances of winning are less than they should be, mathematically speaking? And this is where the key element kicks in: speculation. There are many online betting houses, and Betting Exchange platforms, too. In most cases, the Arbitrage is played by placing a bet at a house and another bet by exchange, but there are some exceptions to this rule.

Moving from words to action…

Concretely, if you are looking for an opportunity to play Arbitrage at this point, I would recommend you access a quota comparing website and google ”sure bets odds” and access the first organic search result. You will come to realize very quickly what this is all about. Technically, there are countless websites dedicated to this technique and even a handful of sponsored services that may come in handy, from those alerting you when the agencies you selected present Arbitrage opportunities and all the way to an automated software which will thus place safe bets for you.

How does a safe bet look like?

For exemplification purposes, we shall use the Under/Over 2.5 goals betting line for which we will select the CS U Craiova – FCSB match. Although picked randomly, it just turned out that, by the time of the drafting of this material, an opportunity for Arbitrage presented itself, albeit insignificant, on this market. The best quotas we could come up with were the following:

  • 16 for the Over bet 2.5 goals to Unibet
  • 88 for the Over bet 2.5 goals to Betano

With a budget of 100 units, say, in RON, if we were to bet RON 46.65 on first bet and RON 53.55 on second bet, we would win RON 100.51, irrespective of the outcome of the match. While a 0.51% win is not appear attractive in the least, this is an actual and random instance capable of generating a safe gain.

Let us not forget that the match had not been listed on the exchange and that, for the purpose of this instance, I only took into account the agencies where I could play this legally in our country – or, if you want to do this full time, you may very well move to another country and have access to hundreds of online bets and stock exchanges.

If you are curious about my calculations and you wish to calculate your own Arbitrage stake for bets with 3 or more possible outcomes such as 1X2, google “dutching calculator” and you will immediately find everything you need to know about this technique.

Realistically, in a calendar day, a dedicated players of this technique should be able to find at least 3 opportunities likely to garner 1% to 3.5% profit. This may not sound much to begin with, but 3 bets a day for a total profit of, say, 5%, should bring about and end of month’s profit of 150%, which is kind of a big deal. Now, the question anyone reading these lines should ask themselves is…

Why doesn’t everyone play Arbitrage?

It is the natural question to be asking yourself. In the end, what is the point of risking and betting when you can just play Arbitrage? A straightforward and concise answer would be: Because the agencies made sure that you would find it extremely difficult to play it.

Certain agencies are forbidding the Arbitrage method altogether pursuant to their regulations, others don’t, but it is only certain that no agency (two or three exceptions globally) will have their users practicing the safe betting method. The reasons are many, but to understand the basics, we should refer to the way in which the betting houses earn their money.

Basically, the agency wishes to receive bets on all possible outcomes in a market, and the quotas will be adjusted so as to encourage more bets in a certain direction and to make sure the operator’s earnings are almost equal, irrespective of the outcome (it is this very principle of the houses that enables the appearance of quotas that facilitate the practice of the Arbitrage method). However, all these efforts are often crushed by certain groups of wise guys playing big money on several accounts, at some key points, for instance, 30 minutes before the start of a match, or a few minutes into the game, with live betting.

The number of those who tried to play or are still playing Arbitrage is rather high, even if the agencies put in place various filters to track down such players. Now think how things were when there was no protection whatsoever, no third parties to cross reference the data from several operators and so on …The houses have suffered, and suffer still, due to this method, which is applied aggressively by various groups affiliated to this phenomenon.

The fact remains that, sooner or later, you will be restrained by the betting houses, but this is where an individual’s talent and drive should step in and push them forward. No details required…

Arbitrage Betting


I have already made suggestions as to how you may find Arbitrage opportunities, so I will not resume this topic; but I will say this: you should focus on less popular competitions and markets on this planet to be more successful.

Set up a budget and calculate the stakes cleverly. Do not put all the money in one start, in two accounts; rather, keep funds available for deposits to a new agency whenever an opportunity presents itself. Basically, you could withhold as much as half your budget into the exchange accounts while trying to keep 20% of the bankroll clear (digital wallet, card), etc.

Bet only on round sums, at the houses, and exact sums, at the exchange. If you use decimal stakes to place bets at agencies, do not be surprised to be restrained after placing just 4-5 bets. Try to play round sums, such as 40, 50, 65, 100, and never gamble on amounts like RON 53.21 in a betting house. In return, at the exchange you have the freedom to make the kinds of bets you like since there are no limitations there except for those pertaining to the liquidity of the market at any given time.

Be aware that 10% of your budget is your entire capital when you apply this method for the first time because you will most likely make errors and encounter some unpleasant surprises. Learn your lesson for little money so that you may then avoid those mistakes that could cost you your fortune. One of the most commons situations is to ignore the rules required by various operators regarding the bets placed on the interrupted games of tennis. There are instances where a game abandoned cancels the bets in an agency and maintains them in others. This is why you should conduct tests with small amounts of money, at least once a month, to become familiar with the mechanism and to be able to encounter various difficulties.

It would be extremely useful for you to keep digital records of all the bets you placed, including the balance sheet you keep for each operator, to be able to postpone or prevent restraining. Some specialists even recommend playing multiple bet tickets at the agencies where you play and especially those where you have a profit, to mislead the automatic alert filters of the houses.

Also, if you are trying to play Arbitrage with large sums of money, you should also be prepared for any technical and human errors you may encounter. For instance, if your landline internet is down, make sure you can configure the hotspot on your mobile phone in a matter of seconds and as a general rule, avoid betting under time pressure.

Another instance you will encounter at some point is that in which an operator shall abruptly go into maintenance after your first bet has already been placed with the other house; even if you do not know what to do you must always consider option b: a Cash Out on your first bet to gain more funding available on which you can bet with another agency on a bet contrary to the initial one.

Even if you find this hard to believe now, you will most likely bet the wrong way at some point; either you calculated the stakes wrong, of you bet on similar, but distinct markets, or you accidentally clicked on a prognosis. Only experience, anticipation and a constant routine of verification of each step will help you overcome these problems without severe repercussions.

It follows from the foregoing reasons that “safe betting” is not as sure as they say… Because theory and practice rarely coincide. Now, having regard to all these factors, you can have a pretty good idea about the reality behind the Arbitrage Betting method. In theory, this approach is infallible, but the successful application of such strategy in the long run, in real life, is not so easy to achieve. Let me conclude by saying good luck to everyone who is bold enough to take this approach!

by Valentin Macovei


Author: Editor

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