We start 2019 focusing of a type of bet that has gained a huge popularity over the last years: both teams to score. The English abbreviation is BTTS (both teams to score), but in Romanian we find it as GG (Goal, Goal). This because football is played on goals, and the manifest trend is of an increasingly offensive gameplay.
In a football match, the team that scores more goals wins. It is an axiomatic truth known to all punters. In the case anticipated by BTTS, when both teams score, the match we expect to see would be rather intense, with each team seeking to turn to account its offensive potential. There are, though, some exceptions, but they are to be seen only when the match has already been settled, or is completely unclear.
BTTS (GG) is one of the bets perfectly adapted to football. A sport where we don’t get to see too many goals, and the most popular limit is set at 2.5 goals. BTTS implies a game with more than 1.5 goals, most of the time even going above the limit of 2.5 goals.
Above, there is a brief presentation of the goals scored in the Premier League, in season 2014-2015. The pattern is highly interesting because it can be replicated without any difficulty today, too. Only the figures and the teams change. How do we interpret it?
Any teams with figures below 1 should be left out when we bet BTTS.
Following the table, we should choose teams with both columns at 1.30 or above. This means that these teams both score and concede many goals, no matter if they play home or away. In our case: Man City (away), Totenham Spurs (home and away), Crystal Palace (away), West Brom (home), and Newcastle (home) – are the “base” teams for BTTS.
There are, however, some basic principles to be considered when we bet BTTS:
- Check out the latest performances of the teams and how they score home or away.
- Consider the recent history of their 1-to-1. Teams play differently by their opponent, and a traditional rivalry matters terribly.
- Pay greater attention to prominent strikers, or teams with a strong offensive line.
- The conditions of the pitch, the weather, the referee and how they handle the match will be all considered, but not overestimated.
- Do not bet BTTS building on the idea that a team “needs to score” or “shall score”.
Once you have already formed an opinion, and decided on the matches to bet on, you can double-check them with the information that several sports/gambling websites offer free of charge, namely the BTTS odds calculated for certain matches:
In the case above, we can clearly see that the best choices are R Vallecano – Celta and Chelsea – Newcastle, two matches that have reasonable chances that both teams would score.
If we are to look into the first Romanian league, Liga 1, we have the following situation (the first part of season 2018 – 2019):
This shows that the best teams to consider for BTTS are: AFC Botoșani, FC Voluntari, AFC Astra, Dinamo Bucharest, and Universitatea Craiova. These are the teams that scored well both away and home, and are suitable for both teams to score.
Home, Voluntari and Astra have the most BTTS matches, while FCSB and Botoșani are champions of away matches. All four teams are worthy of consideration for every match.
Following the pattern above, we can select teams for each of the championships we bet on. For this type of bet, the mathematical models make the difference, and the statistical data provides us with important insights.
But before closing, I suggest you to consider odds higher than @1.60 for BTTS.
This type of bet can be aggregated with the win of a team, such as 1 plus BTTS, or the number of goals scored, more than 2.5 plus BTTS. This, when we seek to get higher odds and, of course, more fun and excitement.
by Mircea Panait